摘要
随着中美关系进入全面战略竞争阶段,产业链重构成为广泛讨论的重要问题。亚洲区域产业链是全球产业链的重要组成部分,也是亚洲国家对中美贸易依赖关系演变的直接表现。通过构建一个考虑大国竞争的相互依赖理论框架,从经济利益和安全角度出发,第三国对大国贸易依赖的演变存在不变、转移和创造三种效应。分别计算亚洲国家对中美贸易份额指数并检验二者相关关系可以发现,亚洲国家对中国贸易依赖上升且对美国贸易依赖下降,表现出明显的贸易依赖转移效应。其中,韩国、卡塔尔、约旦和日本是贸易依赖转移程度最大的国家,纺织服装与服饰是贸易依赖转移程度最大的行业。这一发现拓展了大国竞争视角下第三国对大国贸易依赖演变的学理认识,对中国推动亚洲区域一体化具有一定启示。
As Sino-US relations enter the stage of comprehensive strategic competition,the industrial chain reconstruction has become a widely-discussed issue.The Asian industrial chain is an important part of the global industrial chain,and a direct manifestation of the evolution of Asian countries'trade dependence on China and the United States.Based on the interdependence theory with the competition among major powers,from the perspective of economic security and economic benefit,the evolution of the third country's trade dependence on major powers can be divided into three types:unchanged,transfer,and creation.By calculating the index of Asian countries trade share with China and the United States and testing the correlation,it can be found that the trade dependence of Asian countries on China has increased while that on the United States has decreased,demonstrating a significant trade dependence transfer effect.South Korea,Qatar,Jordan,and Japan are the countries with the largest degree of trade dependence transfer,and textile and clothing are the industries with the largest degree of trade dependence transfer.This paper expands the theoretical understanding of the evolution of trade dependence of the third country from the perspective of competition among major powers,and has certain enlightenment for China to promote the degree of Asian regional integration.
作者
余振
吴小灵
YU Zhen;WU Xiao-ling
出处
《东北亚论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期80-94,126,共16页
Northeast Asia Forum
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA039)。
关键词
中美战略竞争
产业链重构
贸易依赖转移
贸易依赖创造
贸易份额指数
Sino-US Strategic Competition
Industrial Chain Reconstruction
Trade Dependence Diversion
Trade Dependence Creation
Trade Share.Index
