摘要
为了提高配电网在极端天气事件下设备故障及电力失效预测准确率,设计了一种配电网极端天气预警系统。该系统包含三层结构,分别进行信息采集、信息处理和预警与评估。同时,提出了一种预测输电线路在台风灾害下受损概率的混合方法,采用极值Ⅰ型概率分布和蒙特卡罗方法模拟风场,采用随机森林预测输电线路的破坏概率,从而为防灾减灾提供决策支持。通过仿真分析,结果表明所提方法比传统RF方法性能更优。
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of equipment failure and power failure in distribution network under extreme weather conditions,an extreme weather early warning system is designed.The system consists of three layers,with the functions of information collection,information processing,early warning and evaluation,respectively.At the same time,a hybrid method for predicting the damage probability of transmission line under typhoon disaster is proposed.The extreme value type I probability distribution and Monte Carlo method are used to simulate the wind field,and the random forest is used to predict the damage probability of transmission line.The results can provide decision support for disaster prevention and reduction.The simulation results show that the proposed method has better performance than the traditional RF method.
作者
胡学强
董伟锋
HU Xueqiang;DONG Weifeng(Digital Grid Research Institute Co.,Ltd.China Southern Power Grid,Guangzhou 510700,China)
出处
《微型电脑应用》
2023年第11期122-125,共4页
Microcomputer Applications
关键词
配电网
极端天气
台风模拟
预警
损伤预测
distribution network
extreme weather
typhoon simulation
early warning
damage prediction
