摘要
为精确评估超高层建筑消防安全性,首先依据国家标准规范和相关研究梳理出5类能力、22项评估指标,并以此建立超高层建筑火灾风险评估指标体系;然后,结合模糊理论与贝叶斯网络构建超高层建筑火灾风险评估模型,该模型兼具专家的专业性、实际案例的客观性和概率推理的准确性;最后,采用该模型对福州某超高层建筑火灾风险进行评估与调查验证,并对评估结果进行贝叶斯网络的正反向推理。结果表明:该超高层建筑消防安全性良好,消防管理能力是首要需提高的能力,其次是改善安全疏散路线、防烟与排烟设施以及避难层(间)设计,其评估结果与该建筑实际消防安全状况相符合,验证了该模型具有较好的实用性和通用性;贝叶斯网络的正反向推理结果显示,消防制度的不完善或落实不到位是该建筑火灾风险的关键因素。该研究结果也可为其他建筑火灾风险评估提供参考。
To accurately assess the fire safety of super high-rise buildings,firstly,5 types of capability and 22 assessment indicators were sorted out based on national standards and relevant research,and the fire risk assessment index system of super high-rise buildings was established accordingly;then,the risk assessment model of super high-rise buildings'fire capacity was constructed by combining the fuzzy theory and Baye-sian network,which combines the professionalism of the experts,the objectivity of the actual cases,and the accuracy of probabilistic inference;finally,the model was used to assess and investigate the fire risk of a super high-rise building in Fuzhou,and the assessment results were subjected to forward and reverse infe-rence of the Bayesian network.The results show that the fire safety of this super high-rise building is good,and the fire management capability is the first capability to be improved,followed by the improvement of the safe evacuation routes,smoke prevention,and exhaust facilities,and the design of refuge floors(rooms).The assessment results are in line with the actual idea of the safety condition of the building,which verifies that the model has good practicality and versatility,and the results of the forward and backward inference of the Bayesian network show that the imperfections of the fire protection system or the lack of implementation of fire protection system are the key factors of the fire risk of the building.The results of this study can also provide a reference for the fire risk assessment of other buildings.
作者
陈星霖
林卫东
黄晓冬
阳富强
CHEN Xinglin;LIN Weidong;HUANG Xiaodong;YANG Fuqiang(College of Environment and Safety Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;Fujian Provincial Institute of Architectural Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350001,China)
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期40-47,共8页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52274181)
福建省科技计划项目(2023Y3001)。
关键词
超高层建筑
火灾
风险评估
模糊理论
贝叶斯网络
super high-rise building
fire accident
risk assessment
fuzzy theory
Bayesian network
