摘要
数字经济时代积极探究人工智能对企业进口扩张的影响对于推动贸易强国建设和构建双循环新发展格局具有重要意义。文章构建理论框架解析人工智能对企业进口扩张的影响机制。通过采用国际机器人联合会(IFR)发布的工业机器人数据和微观企业数据,实证考察人工智能对企业进口扩张的实际影响及其作用渠道。研究结果表明,人工智能显著促进了企业进口扩张。该结论在经过替换关键变量、选取合适的工具变量进行2SLS估计、更换估计方法、调整样本范围和控制多维固定效应等多重稳健性测试后仍然成立。机制检验发现,人工智能可以缓解企业融资约束、提升企业技能水平,即通过融资效应和技能升级效应促进企业进口扩张。异质性分析显示,人工智能对企业进口扩张的影响表现出强烈的产权性质、规模和区位异质性。人工智能对非国有企业、小型企业以及沿海地区企业进口扩张的带动作用更为强烈。文章通过采用Kaplan-Meier生存曲线以及Cloglog生存模型法考察人工智能与进口稳定性之间的关系,发现企业对人工智能技术的应用可以有效延长进口持续时间,维持进口贸易关系稳定性。文章拓展了企业进口影响因素的研究视角,也为政府通过积极发展人工智能技术来提升中国进口供应链稳定性和助推外贸高质量发展提供了重要政策启示。
In the era of digital economy,it is of great significance to promote the construction of trade powerhouse and new dual-cycle development pattern by exploring the impact of artificial intelligence on enterprise import expansion.This paper builds a theoretical framework to analyze the mechanism of the influence of artificial intelligence on the import expansion of enterprises.Using the industrial robot data released by the International Federation of Robotics(IFR)and firm-level data,this paper empirically examines the actual impact of artificial intelligence on the import expansion of enterprises and influence channels.The results show that artificial intelligence significantly promotes the import expansion of enterprises.And this conclusion is still valid after muliple robustness tests,such as replacing key variables,introducing instrumental variables for 2SLS estimation,changing estimation methods,adjusting sample scope and controlling multi-dimensional fixed effects.Mechanism test finds that artificial intlligence drives the expansion of enterprise financing scale and the increase of the proportion of enterprise skilled labor force.That is,artificial intelligence promotes the import expansion of enterprise through the financing effect and skill upgrading effect.Heterogeneity analysis shows that,the impact of arificial intelligence on the import expansion of enterprises shows strong owner nature,scale and regional heterogeneity.Relatively speaking,artificial intelligence has a more obvious driving role in the import expansion of non-state-owned enterprises,small enterprises and enterprises in coastal areas.In addition,Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Cloglog survival model are used to investigate the relationship between artificial intelligence and import stability,and it is found that the application of artificial intelligence technology can effectively extend the duration of imports and maintain the stability of import trade relations.This study expands the research perspective of the factors affecting the import of enterprises,and also provides important policy implications for the government to actively develop artificial intelligence technology to improve the stability of China's import supply chain and boost the high-quality development of foreign trade.
作者
辛大楞
邱悦
XIN Daleng;QIU Yue
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第11期11-25,M0002,共16页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“金融高水平开放下资本市场风险跨境传染机制、测度与防控研究”(项目编号:22BJL040)。
