摘要
本研究以广东省为例,通过建立三种不同碳排放预测模型对水泥熟料及水泥产量进行预测,并分析对比预测准确度;同时设置基准情景、政策情景和强化情景分析水泥行业碳排放发展趋势,最后制定相应的碳达峰路径及政策建议。研究结果表明:遗传算法优化BP神经网络模型对碳排放的预测精度要高于多元线性回归分析法和支持向量机法。基于情景分析法研究结果可知,广东省水泥行业碳排放于“十四五”前期达峰,峰值约为1.28~1.30亿t,“十四五”中后期和“十五五”期间呈持续下降的趋势。水泥行业碳减排潜力措施从大到小依次为燃料替代、节能改造和原料替代。广东省水泥行业实现碳达峰可通过产业结构路径、能源结构路径、落后产能淘汰路径和节能减碳技术路径。
This study takes Guangdong Province as an example to establish three different carbon emission prediction models for predicting cement clinker and cement production,and the prediction accuracy of different methods is compared.Next,this study sets benchmark scenarios,policy scenarios and enhanced scenarios to analyze the development trend of carbon emissions in the cement industry,and develops corresponding carbon peak paths and policy recommendations.The research results indicated that the prediction accuracy of genetic algorithm optimized BP neural network model for carbon emissions was higher than that of multiple linear regression analysis method and support vector machine method.Based on the research results of scenario analysis method,it can be seen that the carbon emissions of the cement industry in Guangdong Province reached a peak in the early stage of the 14th Five Year Plan,which has a peak of approximately 128-130 million tons.During the middle and later stages of the 14th Five Year Plan and the 15th Five Year Plan,there was a continuous downward trend.The carbon reduction measures with the potention from large to small in the cement industry are fuel substitution,energy-saving transformation and raw material substitution.The cement industry in Guangdong Province can achieve carbon peak through industrial structure path,energy structure path,outdated production capacity elimination path,and energy-saving and carbon reduction technology path.
作者
江姗姗
谢泽琼
俞波
JIANG Shanshan(Guangzhou Energy Testing and Research Institute,Guangzhou 511447,Guangdong,China)
出处
《水泥》
CAS
2023年第12期11-17,共7页
Cement
基金
能源基金会研究项目“广东省工业领域碳达峰行动策略研究”(G-2109-33373)
广州市科技局科技项目“工业排放烟气黑度智能检测方法及应用研究”(202102021278)。
关键词
水泥行业
预测模型
二氧化碳
情景分析法
碳达峰路径
cement industry
prediction model
carbon dioxide
scenario analysis method
peaking path
