摘要
为揭示鄱阳湖流域极端降水事件变化规律及其影响因素,本研究基于鄱阳湖流域24个站点连续59年的逐日降水数据,采用4个极端降水指数分析该流域的极端降水的动态变化,并且进一步讨论大气环流与流域极端降水变化的关系.研究发现:Ⅰ鄱阳湖流域年总降水量、侵蚀性降水量和最大一天降水量均呈不显著增加趋势(P>0.05),而大暴雨量呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05).Ⅱ极端降水的空间变化趋势与年际变化趋势一致,在空间上4个极端降水指数都表现出增加趋势,但是不同地区之间变化趋势存在差异.总降水量、侵蚀性降水量和大暴雨量呈明显增加的区域主要分布在赣江流域和抚河流域.Ⅲ4个极端降水指数变化与北极涛动和西太平洋副热带高压强度指数呈正相关,与东亚季风和亚洲区极涡强度指数均呈负相关,其中西太平洋副高强度指数与大暴雨量呈显著正相关性(P<0.05);大气环流可能是影响流域极端降水变化的重要因素.这些发现可以为鄱阳湖流域极端降水风险评估、自然灾害预测提供参考.
To reveal the dynamic changes in extreme precipitation events and their influencing factors in the Poyang Lake Basin(PLB),we utilized 59 years of daily precipitation data from 24 meteorological stations within the basin.We selected four extreme precipitation indices to analyze the dynamic variations in extreme precipitation in the PLB.Furthermore,we discussed the relationship between atmospheric circulation and the changes in extreme precipitation within the basin.The results showed that:The total precipitation(PRCPTOT),erosive precipitation(ERPTOT)and maximum daily precipitation(RX1day)in the PLB showed insignificant increased trend(P>0.05),while the heavy precipitation(HP)increased significantly(P<0.05).The spatial variation trends of precipitation extremes were consistent with their inter-annual variation.And the four extreme precipitation indices all showed an increasing trend and the change trend were differences in different regions.Trend of total precipitation,erosive precipitation and heavy precipitation were increased obvious in Ganjiang River basin and Fuhe River basin..The extreme precipitation indices showed a positive correlation with the Arctic Oscillation and the intensity index of the Western Pacific subtropical high.Conversely,they exhibited a negative correlation with the East Asian monsoon and the Asian Polar Vortex Intensity index.The Western Pacific subtropical high intensity index was significantly correlated with heavy precipitation(P<0.05).Atmospheric circulation may be a key factor affecting precipitation extremes in the basin.These findings will provide a reference for extreme precipitation risk assessment and disaster prediction in Poyang Lake Basin.
作者
肖娟
汪梅
谢水石
孙金星
黄艳
孟丽红
钟科元
XIAO Juan;WANG Mei;XIE Shuishi;SUN Jingxing;HUANG Yan;MENG Lihong;ZHONG Keyuan(School of Geography and Environmental Engineering,Gannan Normal University;Hydrology and Water Resources Monitoring Center for Ganjiang River Upstream,Ganzhou 341000,China)
出处
《赣南师范大学学报》
2023年第6期93-99,共7页
Journal of Gannan Normal University
基金
江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ211441)
赣州市科技计划项目(202101094931)
赣南师范大学大学生创新创业项目(CX230081)
江西省城市固废低碳循环技术重点实验室(赣南师范大学)开放基金(No.20212BCD42015)
江西省自然科学基金项目(20202BABL203031)。
关键词
气候变化
极端气候事件
大气环流
相关分析
鄱阳湖
climate change
extreme precipitation events
atmospheric circulation
correlation analysis
Poyang Lake Basin
