摘要
【目的】构建并优化Rothermel-惠更斯原理模型对森林火线蔓延进行预测模拟,探索林火蔓延规律,为森林火灾防治提供有效方案。【方法】对黑龙江省典型易燃树种林下细小可燃物开展点烧实验,利用图像的阈值分割算法和Canny边缘检测算法提取火线并计算林火蔓延速率。收集了8种影响林火蔓延的因子,使用皮尔逊相关分析和偏相关系数对林火蔓延因子进行相关分析。在此基础上构建了Rothermel-惠更斯原理模型对森林火灾蔓延过程进行模拟,并与实际实时所获取的火线轮廓进行对比分析。【结果】相关分析的结果表明,风速、坡度、火场温度与林火蔓延速率呈显著正相关,可燃物含水率、可燃物厚度、可燃物载量与林火蔓延速率呈显著负相关。所构建的Rothermel-惠更斯模型的室内点烧实验的总体精度达到79.25%,灵敏度为78.42%,调和平均数为79.11%,Kappa系数为0.804。室外点烧实验的总体精度达到85.15%,灵敏度为82.31%,调和平均数为82.85%,Kappa系数为0.832。这也证明了Rothermel-惠更斯原理模型可以较好地对森林火灾蔓延进行准确预测,且模型性能稳定。【结论】风速、可燃物含水率、坡度等是影响黑龙江森林火灾蔓延速率的主导因素。所构建的Rothermel-惠更斯原理模型在模拟森林火灾蔓延方面具有很好的适用性,该模型在室内与室外点烧中模拟结果均良好且能准确预测并捕捉火线位置。
【Objective】In recent years,forest fire disturbances have seriously affected forest structure and environment.The accurate simulation of forest fire spread is an effective way to reduce forest fire damage.The Rothermel-Huygens principle was developed and optimized to predict and simulate the spread of forest fires,explore the law of forest fire spread,and provide theoretical support and effective plans for forest fire prevention.【Method】An ignition experiment was conducted on fine combustibles in the forests of typical flammable tree species in Heilongjiang Province.The fire line was extracted using the threshold segmentation and Canny edge detection algorithms,and the forest fire spread rate was calculated.Eight factors affecting forest fire spread were collected,and Pearson’s correlation analysis and partial correlation coefficients were used to conduct a correlation analysis on forest fire spread factors.On this basis,the Rothermel-Huygens principal model was constructed to simulate the forest fire spreading process,and a comparison and analysis were performed using the actual real-time fire line contours.【Result】Correlation analysis revealed significant positive correlations of wind speed,slope,and fire site temperature with fire spread rate.Moisture content,thickness,and load of the combustibles were significantly negatively correlated with fire spread rate.The overall accuracy(PT)of the indoor ignition experiment of the constructed Rothermel-Huygens model reached 79.25%,sensitivity(S)was 78.42%,F-measure value was 79.11%,and Kappa coefficient was 0.804.The PT of the outdoor ignition experiment of the constructed Rothermel-Huygens model reached 85.15%,S was 82.31%,F-measure value was 82.85%,and the Kappa coefficient was 0.832.The findings indicated that the Rothermel-Huygens principle model could accurately predict the fire spreading process and the performance of the model was stable.【Conclusion】Wind speed,moisture content of combustibles,and slope are the dominant factors affecting the forest fire spread rate in Heilongjiang.The constructed Rothermel-Huygens principal model was suitable for simulating the spread of forest fires.With good simulation results for indoor and outdoor ignitions,the model can accurately predict and capture the position of the fire line.
作者
张晓迪
李明泽
王斌
吴泽川
莫祝坤
范仲洲
ZHANG Xiaodi;LI Mingze;WANG Bin;WU Zechuan;MO Zhukun;FAN Zhongzhou(School of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)
出处
《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期192-202,共11页
Journal of Nanjing Forestry University:Natural Sciences Edition
基金
国家重点研发计划(2020YFC1511603)。
