摘要
为提高区域建筑的运维安全,通过调查、收集国内外典型建筑结构运维安全事故案例,并考虑结构倒塌事故各风险因素概率分布,构建考虑时间参数的蒙特卡洛模型,以评估运维阶段结构倒塌风险的多样性因素。以上海市及其代表性的行政区域为例,对该区域建筑结构倒塌相对安全态势水平进行评估,进而实现对区域建筑运维风险的主动控制,提高安全管理能力。
To improve the safety level at the operation stage for regional buildings,this paper forms a basic database for risk analysis by investigating and collecting the typical building structure operation and maintenance safety accident cases at home and abroad.The database has collected 700 cases of structure collapse accidents at home and abroad.Through statistical analysis,the relationship between the frequency of accidents and service period conforms to the bathtub curve.Based on this database,the probability distribution of each risk factor for structural collapse accidents is considered.Taking the service period of the building when the building structure collapses as the focus of the analysis,the Monte Carlo model is selected to consider the time parameter.The model uses the Gamma distribution to describe the probability distribution of time intervals when each risk factor occurs.The trained Monte Carlo model can be used to evaluate the probability and diversity factors of structural collapse risk in the operation and maintenance phase.Through the weight analysis of each risk factor,it can be concluded that the three risk factors with largest weights are excessive load,construction defects and fire accident.Among them,excessive load and construction defects are the key factors of the model due to the higher sensitivity.To apply the model,the buildings in Shanghai and its representative administrative regions are taken as examples.From the perspective of relative collapse probability,the relative safety situation level of building structure collapse in this region is evaluated based on their service period.The evaluation results show the level of the safety situation of the representative administrative region based on the result of safety level of the whole Shanghai city.Risk assessment through the model can realize active control of regional building operation and maintenance risks,and as well as improve safety management capabilities.
作者
黄科锋
张辉
肖思奇
HUANG Kefeng;ZHANG Hui;XIAO Siqi(Shanghai Jianke Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200032,China;Shanghai Key Laboratory of Engineering Structure Safety,SRIBS,Shanghai 200032,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第11期3799-3806,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC080610101)。
关键词
安全工程
建筑结构
蒙特卡洛法
风险评估
使用年限
safety engineering
building structures
Monte Carlo
risk assessment
service period
