摘要
南果梨是辽宁地理标志产品,花期观赏是待开发的旅游资源,开展花期预报服务有助于推动旅游业。利用2000—2022年鞍山气象资料和南果梨花期物候资料,基于相关分析和逐步回归方法,筛选相关气候因子建立始花期预报模型。结果表明:3月份气温是影响始花期主要因素,降水次之,光照影响不显著。鞍山南果梨始花期出现在4月中—下旬,当3月中旬平均气温<4.0℃、平均最高气温<9.0℃、3月中旬—4月上旬平均气温<6.0℃、平均最低气温<2.0℃时,始花期出现在4月下旬,反之在4月上旬;并且,气温每升高1℃,始花期提前2~3 d。通过逐步回归筛选出3月中旬的平均气温和平均最高气温、3月中旬—4月上旬平均气温、平均最高、最低气温及3月下旬—4月上旬降水量等6个因子,建立的始花期预报模型准确率为84.8%。运用相关指标和逐步回归模型,可预测鞍山南果梨开花始期,此方法可纳入专项气象预报服务中。
Nanguo pear is a kind of Geographic Indications Product in Liaoning,and pear flower viewing is a tourism resource to be developed.Forecasting the flowering period is conducive to promoting the tourism industry.Based on the meteorological data of Anshan from 2000 to 2022 and the phenological data of the flowering period,we established a forecast model to screen related climate factors by using relevant analysis and stepwise regression methods.The results showed that the temperature in March was the main factor that affected the initial flowering period,followed by precipitation and light.Anshan Nanguo pear started to blossom in middle and late April.The flowering started in late April if the average temperature in the middle of March was less than 4.0℃,the average maximum temperature was less than 9.0℃,the average temperature from the middle of March to the first ten days of April was less than 6.0℃,and the average minimum temperature was less than 2.0℃.Without these conditions,the flowering started in the first ten days of April.The initial flowering period was advanced by 2-3 days when the temperature increased by 1℃.We selected six factors by stepwise regression,including the average temperature and the average maximum temperature in the middle of March,the average temperature,the average maximum temperature and the average minimum temperature from the middle of March to the first ten days of April,and the precipitation from the last ten days of March to the first ten days of April.The accuracy of the prediction model for the initial flowering period was 84.8%.It is feasible to predict the initial flowering period of Anshan Nanguo pear by using relevant indicators and stepwise regression model,and the method can be included in special meteorological forecast services.
作者
韩艳凤
何军
康晓玉
HAN Yanfeng;HE Jun;KANG Xiaoyu(Anshan Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province,Anshan 114004,Liaoning,China)
出处
《农学学报》
2023年第11期81-87,共7页
Journal of Agriculture
基金
辽宁省气象局科技项目“辽宁省观鸟、避暑、枫红、冰雪气象指数研究”(201710)。
关键词
南果梨
花期
预报模型
鞍山
Nanguo pear
flowering period
forecast model
Anshan
