摘要
【目的/意义】产业风险弱信号的有效识别对于政府决策者、企业管理者在最佳时间采取防范措施,避免或降低风险可能带来的损失具有重要意义。【方法/过程】本文引入认知分析理论,创新性地构建了基于认知视角的风险弱信号识别的感知体系框架,提出建立弱信号风险敏感者体系,通过感觉系统建立产业信息获取维度和结构、知觉系统对感觉到产业弱信号信息的解释、意识系统对产业弱信号刺激的觉察、知识表征系统对产业弱信号进行意义赋予,从而完成风险弱信号的识别过程。【结果/结论】通过人类对信息获取、加工、分析的认知序列模型为基础来分析产业风险弱信号的定义、获取,理解等一系列问题,能够提升弱信号风险识别的有效性。【创新/局限】后期将会在该框架基础上继续细化、模型化,而构建一个完整的产业风险弱信号识别系统,以为产业的发展提供一些有价值的参考。
[Purpose/significance]The effective identification of weak signals of industrial risks is important for government decision makers and business managers to take preventive measures at the best time to avoid or reduce the possible losses caused by risks.[Method/process]This paper introduces cognitive analysis theory,innovatively constructs a framework of perception system for risk weak signal identification based on cognitive perspective,proposes to establish a weak signal risk sensitive person system,establishes industrial information acquisition dimension and structure through sensory system,interpretation of sensed industrial weak signal information by perceptual system,awareness of industrial weak signal stimulus by consciousness system,and knowledge representation system to The process of recognizing risky weak signals is completed by the consciousness system's perception of industrial weak signal stimuli,and the knowledge representation system's meaning assignment to industrial weak signals.[Result/conclusion]A series of problems such as definition,acquisition,and understanding of industrial weak signals can be analyzed based on the cognitive sequence model of human's information acquisition,processing,and analysis,which can improve the effectiveness of weak signal risk recognition.[Innovation/limitation]Later,we will continue to refine and model based on this framework,and build a complete industrial risk weak signal identification system to provide some valuable references for the development of industry.
作者
白晨
张英杰
曹悦
张越
BAI Chen;ZHANG Yingjie;CAO Yue;ZHANG Yue(Institute of scientific and technical information of China,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第10期129-135,188,共8页
Information Science
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“颠覆性技术感知响应平台研发与应用示范之地平线扫描系统”(2019YFA0707202)。
关键词
弱信号
产业风险识别
认知偏差
弱信号感知
感知体系框架
weak signal
industrial risk identification
cognitive bias
weak signal perception
perception system framework
