摘要
高企的地方政府隐性债务已成为威胁财政金融安全的潜藏风险点,如何及时有效预测地方政府隐性债务风险、建立健全完善的风险预警机制成为债务治理的重要问题。本文基于沪深A股上市公司数据,在省级层面对资产减值损失进行汇总,借助城投债考察微观会计信息对地方政府隐性债务风险的宏观预测价值。研究发现,第一,汇总资产减值蕴含了隐性债务风险的实质性信息,能够有效预测地方政府未来隐性债务风险。第二,资产减值信息通过对财政实力和隐性债务负担的前瞻性反映发挥预测功能。汇总资产减值越高,市场投资者对城投债的“隐性担保”预期越弱。第三,不同计提动机、减值可转回性以及不同资产的减值具有差异化预测能力。第四,中央转移支付、地方政府债务置换以及政府干预削弱了资产减值对隐性债务风险的预测效度。本文结论拓展了地方政府隐性债务风险预测的研究思路,有助于健全现有的债务风险预警体系、完善隐性债务风险防控机制,为牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线、切实防范隐性债务风险外溢提供了有益参考。
The high level of local government implicit debt has become a latent risk threatening fiscal and financial security.How to predict local implicit debt risk in a timely and effective manner and establish a sound risk early warning mechanism is an important issue in local government debt governance.Using the data of Chinese A-share listed companies,this paper aggregates asset impairment losses at the provincial level and empirically investigates the macro predictive value of accounting information on the future implicit debt risk of the local government with the help of Chengtou Bonds.We find that,firstly,aggregated asset impairment can effectively predict the future implicit debt risk of local governments.Second,the forecasting value of asset impairment is attributed to the forward-looking reflection of the local government's financial strength and implicit debt burden.Besides,the higher the aggregate asset impairment,the weaker the ex⁃pected strength of the"implicit guarantee"for Chengtou Bonds.Thirdly,there are differences in the predictive power of impairment among different motives,reversibility of asset impairment,and different assets.Finally,fiscal transfer,local government debt replacement,and government intervention weaken the predictive validity of asset impairment.We provide a new idea for the prediction of local govern⁃ment implicit debt risk,which is useful for improving the existing debt risk early warning system,thus effectively preventing the spillover of local debt risk and firmly preventing regional and systematic financial risk.
作者
罗宏
陈韵竹
刘天红
Luo Hong;Chen Yunzhu;Liu Tianhong(School of Accounting,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第8期132-153,共22页
Journal of Management World
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目“会计信息对地方政府隐性债务风险的预测价值研究”(基金号:22XJA790006)的资助。
关键词
地方政府隐性债务
宏观经济预测
资产减值
城投债
local government implicit debt
macroeconomic forecasting
asset impairment
Chengtou Bonds
