摘要
[研究目的]对美国智库报告文本进行分析研判可以管窥美国对“一带一路”建设实施十年来的整体认知和战略走向,对推进“一带一路”倡议下一阶段发展具有重要意义。[研究方法]选取美国9家智库的19份具有代表性的报告作为研究样本进行文本分析,梳理美国智库对“一带一路”的建设意图、建设影响、建设现状以及如何应对“一带一路”等问题的主要认知及其特点。[研究结论]研究结果发现,受冷战思维与现实利益因素驱动,美国智库对“一带一路”的认知总体呈现负面为主的特点;“府库”双方对“一带一路”的态度总体呈现出“观察与观望-对抗与抵制-竞争与替代”的演进脉络;对“一带一路”的攻击已经形成“国会政府-情报部门-智库机构-宣传媒体-普通民众”循环互动的“生态系统”。
[Research purpose]American think tanks can reflect the cognition and attitude of the United States towards the"Belt and Road",and the analysis and judgment of the text of the think tank report can provide a glimpse of the overall cognition and strategic direction of the United States in the past ten years of the implementation of the"Belt and Road"construction,which is of great significance for promoting the next stage of the development of the"Belt and Road"initiative.[Research method]This paper selects 19 representative reports of 9 American think tanks as research samples to conduct text analysis,and summarizes the main cognition and characteristics of American think tanks on the construction intention,construction impact,construction status,and how to deal with the"Belt and Road".[Research conclusion]It is found that,driven by Cold War thinking and practical interests,American think tanks'cognition of the"Belt and Road"is generally negative.The overall development of the attitude of the U.S.government as well as Think-Tanks to the"Belt and Road"show the evolution of"observation and wait-to-see,confrontation and resistance,competition and substitution".Their attacks on the"Belt and Road"have evolved into a process of congressional passing bills,intelligence agencies collecting information,think tanks analyzing issues,media publicizing,and the general public realizing.
作者
朱永彪
王俊超
Zhu Yongbiao;Wang Junchao(Center for Studies of Ethnic Groups in Northwest China,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000;Research Center for the Belt and Road,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000;School of Politics and International Relations,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第12期83-92,共10页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“多重危机和博弈加剧背景下的阿富汗安全形势及对策研究”(编号:21AGJ014)研究成果。
关键词
美国智库
“一带一路”倡议
战略竞争
国家安全
U.S.think tank
the"belt and road"initiative
strategic competition
national security
