摘要
城市扩张、土地利用变化引起流域生境及其碳储量改变,为探明土地利用更替对碳储量造成的影响,以鄱阳湖流域为研究区域,应用InVEST和PLUS模型甄别鄱阳湖流域土地利用及碳储量时空分布特征,探索自然发展、城市建设和生态保护情景下流域碳储量时空演变及响应机制。结果表明:2000—2020年鄱阳湖流域水域、建设用地均呈扩张趋势,而土地碳储量持续下降;在自然发展和城镇发展情景下,林地、草地和未利用地数量均减少,在生态保护情景下,草地呈现减少而林地呈现扩张,在自然发展情景中耕地呈现扩张;较2020年,在自然发展、城镇发展和生态保护情景下的2030年碳储量,分别下降19万,149万和上升25万t,且土地利用分布与碳储量分布呈高度一致性。明确鄱阳湖流域土地利用及碳储量时空演变特征,预测其未来变化趋势,有利于流域土地利用可持续发展,为推进流域“双碳”目标实现提供参考。
Urban expansion and land use change cause changes in the habitat and carbon storage in the Poyang Lake basin.In order to investigate the impact of land use replacement on carbon storage,this study took the Poyang Lake Basin as the research area,and applied InVEST model and PLUS model to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of land use and carbon storage,in order to explore the spatiotemporal evolution and response mechanism of carbon storage under natural development,urban construction,and ecological protection scenarios.The results showed that:1) the water area and construction land in Poyang Lake basin expanded from 2000 to 2020,while the land carbon storage continued to decline.2) under the natural development and urban development scenarios,the amount of forest land,grassland and unused land decreased;under the ecological protection scenario,the amount of grassland decreased while forest land expanded;under the natural development scenario,cultivated land expanded.3) compared with 2020,carbon storage in 2030 under natural development,urban development and ecological protection scenarios decreased by 190000 tons,decreased by 1.49 million tons and increased by 250000 tons,respectively,and land use distribution showed a high consistency with carbon storage distribution.Exploring the spatio-temporal evolution of land use and carbon storage in Poyang Lake Basin,and anticipating future trend,is conducive to the sustainable development of land use in the basin,and provides a reference for realizing the Dual Carbon goal in the Poyang Lake basin.
作者
付帅
彭雨欣
徐炳先
FU Shuai;PENG Yuxin;XU Bingxian(Department of Land Resource Management,College of Taxation and Public Administration,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Utilization in Arid Areas,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China)
出处
《环境工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期163-172,共10页
Environmental Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(42361003)
新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室基金(XJYS0907-2023-22)
江西财经大学青年科技人才项目
江西财经大学“乡村振兴与社会政策创新”学科创新团队项目
江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ190269)。
