摘要
本文基于文献综述视角,梳理了城投债信用利差的影响因素,归纳了这些因素对其产生影响的机制路径。研究结果表明,城投债的信用利差长期主要受到宏观、区域、行业和债项因素的影响。其中,宏观因素影响主要体现在经济基本面、流动性溢价及资产配置渠道效应上,但其具体影响路径存在一定争议;区域因素影响主要体现在地方政府的担保能力和担保意愿上,近年来该影响有削弱趋势;行业因素影响主要体现在地产相关的地方财政收入上,且其可通过融资扩大效应增强该影响;债项因素影响主要体现在第三方担保上,研究显示只有专业担保公司的担保能较显著影响利差,以“冲评级”为目的的城投互保没有显著影响。此外,本文提出城投信用利差研究可以继续挖掘的方向:不同区域不同层级平台的信用利差比较研究,平台转型背景下财务信息的有效挖掘利用,以及债务风险的定位判断和策略取舍对定价范式的选择影响。
Based on the perspective of literature review,this article summarizes the influencing factors of urban construction investment bond credit spread and summarizes how these factors affect it.The research results indicate that the credit spread of urban construction investment bonds is mainly influenced by macro,regional,industry,and debt factors in the long run.Among them,the impact of macro factors is mainly reflected in economic fundamentals,liquidity premiums,and asset allocation channel effects,but the specific path of their impact is controversial.The influence of regional factors is mainly reflected in the guarantee capacity and willingness of local governments,and in recent years,this influence has shown a weakening trend.The impact of industry factors is mainly reflected in the"land finance"related to real estate,and it is also enhanced through the"financing expansion effect".The debt factor is mainly reflected in third-party guarantees,but research shows that only guarantees from professional guarantee companies can significantly affect interest spreads,while urban investment mutual guarantees aimed at ratings have no significant impact.In addition,this article proposes three directions that can be further explored in the study of urban construction investment bond credit spread:comparative research on credit spread across different regions and platforms at different levels,effective mining and utilization of financial information under platform transformation,and the impact of debt risk positioning judgment and strategic choices on pricing models.
作者
曾羽
曲远源
Zeng Yu;Qu Yuanyuan
出处
《财政科学》
CSSCI
2023年第10期152-160,共9页
Fiscal Science
关键词
城投债
信用利差
信用风险
Urban Construction Investment Bonds
Credit Spread
Credit Risks
