摘要
猪粮比价一直以来被当作是反应生猪市场价格波动的重要指标。2023年以来,河北省猪粮比价始终低于6∶1,长期处于价格过度下跌二级预警区间。以河北省猪粮比价为研究对象,分析当前河北省猪粮比价达到价格过度下跌二级预警区间标准的主要形势,并从生猪市场价格和玉米批发价格2个影响猪粮比价的主要因素出发,对河北省未来猪粮比价进行预测。结果显示:2024年上半年,河北省猪粮比价大概率会保持在价格过度下跌二级预警区间。对此,应通过完善市场预警标准和应对机制、多举措推动生猪产业转型升级、稳定能繁母猪数量与提升质量来破解生猪价格下跌趋势;通过多方面控制玉米生产成本、“两只手”并举调控市场来抑制玉米批发价格上涨,以期推动河北省猪粮比价走向合理区间。
The ratio of pig grain has always been regarded as an important index reflecting the price fluctuation of live pig market.Since 2023,the ratio of pig grain in Hebei Province has been lower than 6:1,which has been in the second-level warning range of excessive price decline for a long time.This paper took the ratio of pig grain in Hebei Province as the object,analyzed the main situation of the ratio price of pig grain in Hebei Province.Then,it focused on the live pig market price and the wholesale price of corn which are two main factors affecting the relative price of pig grain in Hebei Province,and predicated the future relative price of pig grain.The results show that in the first half of 2024,the pig grain ratio in Hebei Province will remain in the second-level warning range of excessive price decline.Finally,the paper proposed specific countermeasures and suggestions to crack the downward trend of live pig prices by improving market warning standards and coping mechanisms,promoting the transformation and upgrading of the live pig industry by multiple means and stabilizing the number and quality of breeding sows.In addition,it suggests controlling corn production costs in many ways and regulating the market by"two invisible hands"simultaneously to restrain the rise in wholesale corn prices.
作者
丛林
刘芮彤
齐静
张立平
CONG Lin;LIU Ruitong;QI Jing;ZHANG Liping(College of Humanities and Social Sciences,Agricultural University of Hebei,Baoding 071000,Hebei;College of Continuing Education,Agricultural University of Hebei,Baoding 071000,Hebei)
出处
《河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2023年第6期107-115,共9页
Journal of Hebei Agricultural University (SOCIAL SCIENCES)
基金
河北省现代农业产业体系生猪产业经济岗位(编号:HBCT2023170301)
农业农村部政策与改革司委托课题项目:“中部地区促进家庭农场形成发展研究”(编号:041821301122441005)
2021年度河北省高等学校科学研究计划项目:“乡村振兴战略背景下农业行政管理学构建研究”(编号:SQ2021016)
河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地:“河北农业大学乡土文化与乡村治理研究中心项目”。
