摘要
机器人是自动化、智能化生产的核心设备,在其广泛应用的过程中将伴随着就业的创造与破坏,从而深刻影响劳动力市场的“广延边际”和“集约边际”。工作时长的变化是构成劳动供给的重要方面,深入分析机器人的普及与员工劳动时间之间的关系,有助于我们更加全面充分地认识机器人的就业效应。文章放宽了工作时长同质性的假设,构建“机器人-工作任务”模型刻画机器人的引入对员工工作时长的影响。理论模型显示,机器人的使用将缩短非常规任务工作时长,对常规任务工作时长的影响具有不确定性。在理论模型的基础上,文章进一步使用2021年广东省“企业-员工”匹配调查数据,对机器人的工时效应展开分析。实证结果表明:机器人的使用延长了员工日工作时间以及周工作时间,且工作时间延长的效应主要反映在普通职位、低学历与新生代三个较为弱势的员工群体中。工作时间的延长主要由机器人破坏原有岗位的替代效应、催生新生岗位的创造效应与实现生产扩张的规模效应引起,三种效应所产生的新旧更替压力与规模扩张需求大于机器人技术所带来的效率提升作用,使得员工需要工作更长的时间。进一步分析对工资的影响发现,机器人的引入对平均小时工资的影响不显著,但会通过增加工作时长和员工加班工资提高个人月工资,并可能导致企业内部工资差距变大。
"Intelligent manufacturing"is an important feature of the current society and technological development in China.With the increasing investment of robots in enterprises,the impact of robots on the labor market is worthy of careful consideration.The existing literature mainly focuses on discussing the impact of robots on total employment,employment structure,wage,etc,while little attention is paid to the individual working hours that constitute an effective labor supply.The lack of research on the changes in the individual working hours of employees will undoubtedly hinder our comprehensive understanding of the employment effect of robots.Therefore,this article attempts to analyze the impact of robots on employees'working hours,make some reasonable explanations for the mechanisms and discuss other potential impacts of robots,to supplement existing research and form close connections with them.At the theoretical level,the"robot-task"model is used to describe the impact of robots on the average individual working hours of different tasks.It is found that the use of robots will lead to the shortening of the working time of non-routine tasks and have an uncertain impact on the working hours of routine tasks.As for the specific direction of the total effect,it depends on the composition and scale of the actual work content of employees.Then,the"enterprise-worker"matching data of Guangdong Province in 2021 is used to test the working hour's effect of robots.The empirical results indicate that the use of robots has extended employees'daily and weekly working hours,and is mainly reflected in three relatively vulnerable employee groups:first-line employees,low-education employees,and the new generation.The extension of working hours is mainly caused by the substitution effect of robots destroying original posts,the creation effect of creating new posts and the scale effect of production expansion.The pressure of job replacement and the demand of scale expansion caused by the three effects are greater than the efficiency improvement brought by robotics,which makes employees need to work longer hours.Further analysis of the impact of robots on wages shows that the introduction of robots has no significant impact on the average hourly wage,but it will increase personal monthly wages by increasing working hours and overtime wages and may lead to a larger wage gap within the enterprise.This paper makes a more comprehensive analysis of the employment impact of robot from the micro data in Guangdong region,and enriches the research on the employment effect of robot from the perspective of working hours.The research results confirm the contribution of robot application to economic development,and draw attention to the problem of excessive labor and fair distribution,which is helpful to provide useful suggestions for adapting to the popularization of robots.
作者
李小瑛
张宇平
Li Xiaoying;Zhang Yuping
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第12期62-82,共21页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“粤港澳大湾区打造国际科技创新中心的方向、模式与机制研究”(19BJY011)资助。
