摘要
在法律实践中,常常需要模糊推理和模糊判断。由“模糊逻辑之父”拉特飞·扎德开创的模糊逻辑理论,提供了一种分析模糊性问题的新工具,可用以解析不确定法律概念,认定信息不完备条件下的待证事实,并作出模糊综合评判。特别是扎德的“词语计算”和“软计算”理论,比较清晰地揭示了人类的思维过程,也使我们更容易理解法官的判案过程。这一过程可以概括为:“软计算=贝叶斯法则+语言概率”,即用当事人双方提供的证据所反映的信息,不断修正、调整其主观上以语言变量而非数值形式表示的概率性认识(置信度),经渐进收敛,对事实存在的可能性形成“内心确信”,然后据以作出裁判。
The world is not simply black and white,but has many fuzzy areas.In the existing legal logics,although there is no fuzzy logic concept,the fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy judgment are often needed in the legal practice.The fuzzy logic theory pioneered by L.A.Zad,father of fuzzy logic theory,provides a new tool for fuzzy analysis,which can be used to analyze the uncertain legal concepts,identify the fuzzy facts under the conditions of incomplete information,and make a fuzzy comprehensive judgment.In particular,Zad’s“word computing”and“soft computing”theories clearly reveal human thinking process and make it easier to understand judge’s decision process,which can be summarized as:“Soft Computing=Bayesian Law+Language Probability”,i.e.,with the information of the parties’evidence,a judge constantly adjust his subjective understanding in the form of language variables rather than numerical probability.Through the opinion convergence,the judge will reach his“moral certainty”about the possibility of some facts,and then according it to make the final judgment.
作者
刘东亮
LIU Dongliang(Law School,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China)
出处
《现代法学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期49-70,共22页
Modern Law Science
基金
2023年教育部社会科学基金规划项目“法律模糊性问题的解码与计算:模糊逻辑理论的展开”(23YJAZH078)。
关键词
模糊逻辑
软计算
贝叶斯法则
语言概率
计算思维
fuzzy logic
soft computing
Bayesian Law
language probability
computational thinking
