摘要
为研究多危险源油气站场内的个人风险,在笛卡尔坐标系下通过选取合适的步长将站场划分为不同网格,基于数据统计和信息扩散技术确定事故发生概率,通过模拟不同事故后果下的危害范围确定站场不同位置的个人致死概率,采用分段函数插值建立危害范围和致死概率的关系,并在网格上叠加个人风险值,通过实例分析验证了模型的准确性。结果表明,信息扩散技术以失效数据为依据,避免了主观赋值的不确定性;单一危险源以触发地点为中心,风险呈对称分布;风险叠加后,风险值呈随机分布,待评价站场区域内西侧和东南侧的个人风险值最小,中心和西南侧的个人风险值较大;通过分位数划分不同风险可接受范围,由此可针对性制定维护维修策略。
In order to study the individual risk inside,an oil and gas station with multi-hazard sources was divided into grids by determining appropriate step lengths under Cartesian coordinate system,in which the accident probability was determined based on data statistics and information diffusion technology.The individual death probability at different locations of the station was determined by simulating the hazard range under different accident consequences;the relationship between hazard range and death probability was established through segmented function interpolation,and the individual risk value was superimposed on the grid.The model accuracy is verified by an example analysis.The results show that the information diffusion technology based on failure data helps to avoid the uncertainty of subjective assignment.The single hazard source is centered at the trigger point,where the risk is distributed symmetrically and then randomly after superposition.The individual risk of the station area to be evaluated is at its minimum value on the west and southeast side,while at larger values at the center and on the southwest side.By differentiating the acceptability of risks through quantiles,maintenance strategies can be determined.The research results can provide practical reference for formulating emergency plan of similar stations and yards.
作者
胡奕
李志强
廖沫然
张逸宁
梁昌晶
李盼
HU Yi;LI Zhiqiang;LIAO Moran;ZHANG Yining;LIANG Changjing;LI Pan(PetroChina Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC,Renqiu 062552,China;The Erlian Filiale of HuaBei Oilfield Company,CNCP,Xilinhot 026000,China;Renqiu Huabei Petroleum Lide Construction Project Co.,Ltd.,Renqiu 062552,China)
出处
《石油工程建设》
2023年第6期65-70,共6页
Petroleum Engineering Construction
关键词
信息扩散
网格技术
油气站场
个人风险
评价
information diffusion
grid technology
oil and gas station
individual risk
evaluation
