摘要
[研究目的]面向复杂舆论场景提取信息内容风险点,构建风险诊断概念模型,为现实工作提供方法参考和工具借鉴。[研究方法]综合SCL、JHA、SWOT及28位风险专家调查列举的统计数据,挖掘复杂舆论场景中的五大信息内容风险点。借助Delphi Method确定风险诊断指标框架后,运用AHP-DEMATEL加权中心度M_(i)和初始权重W^(1)_(i)并作归一化处理而形成诊断方程,结合风险分级标准构建风险诊断I-E-S模型,最后通过案例仿真检验模型性能。[研究结论]风险源和风险处置绩效对诊断指数的影响最大,受众情感反应与行为反应次之,传播力最小。错误内容占比、二次违法违规用户量、重大负面舆情量、线下失范行为量在20个末项操作化指标中的作用明显。多样本仿真检验发现,I-E-S模型诊断结果与用户风险感知契合度超过82.2%,模型实用性和精准性可初步满足风控工作需求。
[Research purpose]The objective of this study is to extract information content risk points in complex public opinion scenarios,construct a risk diagnostic model,and provide method references and tool guidance for practical work.[Research method]The statistical data obtained by using SCL,JHA,SWOT and a risk expert survey listing method were analyzed to identify five information content risk points in complex public opinion scenarios.After determining the framework of risk diagnostic indicators by the Delphi Method,the AHP-DEMATEL method was applied to weight the centralities M_(i) and initial weights W^(1)_(i) and then standardize them,forming a diagnostic equation.Then,in conjunction with risk classification criteria,the risk diagnostic I-E-S model was constructed.Finally,the model's performance was tested through case studies.[Research conclusion]The results indicate that risk source and risk disposal performance have the greatest impact on the diagnostic indicator,followed by audience emotional response and behavioral response.The impact of dissemination power is the smallest.Among the last 20 actionable indicators,the proportion of erroneous content,the number of secondary illegal and non-compliant users,the volume of significant negative public opinion,and the quantity of offline deviant behaviors have significant effects.Through multiple empirical tests,it was found that the risk diagnostic results of the I-E-S model align with users'risk perception with a compatibility rate exceeding 82.2%.The practicability and accuracy of this model can initially meet the needs of risk control.
作者
寇杰
李明德
乔亨
Kou Jie;Li Mingde;Qiao Heng(School of Marxism,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049;School of Journalism and New Media,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049;Shaanxi Executive Leadership Academy Yan'an,Yan'an 716000)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第1期142-151,126,共11页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“媒介赋权视域下健康观建构和健康信息服务创新研究”(编号:20XXW008)
传播内容认知国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目“复杂舆论场景中信息内容传播风控评估体系构建与应用”(编号:20K02)
陕西省社会科学基金年度项目“大数据背景下陕西网络舆情态势研判与风险防控策略研究”(编号:2022M002)
陕西省社会科学基金项目舆情专项委托项目“重大事件中网络舆情、民意与执政理念协同发展研究”(编号:2021ZXWT02)
2023年陕西省软科学研究计划一般项目“媒体为陕西创新驱动高质量发展营造良好舆论氛围研究”(编号:2023-CX-RKX-047)研究成果。
关键词
舆论
复杂舆论场景
信息内容风险
风险诊断
诊断模型
诊断指标
public opinion
complex public opinion scenarios
information content risk
risk diagnosis
diagnostic model
diagnostic indicators
