摘要
针对水压-温变-时效(hydraulic-seasonal-time,简称HST)模型监控高拱坝变形的不足,以变形规律相似的测点群为对象,搭建一种新的监控模式。首先,依据面板数据格式,建立水压、温变和时效面板模型;其次,引入固定效应(fixed effect,简称FE)和随机效应(random effect,简称RE)表征个体差异效应,据此构建HST-FE/RE面板模型;然后,通过建立置信椭球,借助典型小概率原理,提出测点群变形监控准则;最后,结合某实际工程,检验方法的可行性和有效性。结果显示:HST-FE/RE复相关系数及剩余标准差分别为99.875%和0.01634,拟合性能比HST更优;HST-FE/RE变形预测相对误差波动平稳,最大值为3.28%,精度高于HST;置信椭球准则对典型小概率变形的辨识比置信区间准则严格。相较于常规方法,本方法性能提升较大,更适用于高拱坝变形监控。
The hydraulic-seasonal-time(HST)model has several shortcomings in the deformation monitoring of high arch dams.Regarding observation point groups with similar deformation characteristics as objects,a new modeling method is developed in this research.First,the hydraulic pressure,seasonal and time panel models are constructed according to panel data structure.Second,the fixed effect(FE)and random effect(RE)are introduced to characterize individual difference effect,and the HST-FE/RE panel model is established.Third,the construction method of confidence ellipsoid is investigated.Using the principle of typical small probability,the deformation monitoring criteria of observation point group are proposed.Finally,a case study is conducted to test the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.The multiple correlation coefficients and residual standard deviations of the HST-FE/RE are 99.875%and 0.01634,respectively.The fitting performance of HST-FE/RE is better than that of HST.The change process of relative error of the HST-FE/RE is stable,and the maximum value is 3.28%.The HST-FE/RE has a higher prediction accuracy than the HST.The confidence ellipsoid criteria compared with the confidence interval criteria has stricter identification conditions for typical small probability deformations.Compared with conventional method,the performance of the proposed methodology is improved,which is more suitable to monitor the deformation behavior of high arch dams.
作者
杨光
孙锦
赵阿辉
林海波
王琳
YANG Guang;SUN Jin;ZHAO Ahui;LIN Haibo;WANG Lin(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power Zhengzhou,450046,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University Nanjing,210098,China;College of Surveying and Geo-informatics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power Zhengzhou,450046,China)
出处
《振动．测试与诊断》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期1144-1151,1245,共9页
Journal of Vibration,Measurement & Diagnosis
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52109155)
水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金资助项目(2019492211)
华北水利水电大学高层次人才启动资助项目(202005002,202005017)。
关键词
变形监控
测点群
个体差异效应
固定效应
随机效应
置信椭球
deformation monitoring
observation point group
individual difference effect
fixed effect
random effect
confidence ellipsoid
