摘要
发挥消费对经济的拉动作用,对畅通国内大循环具有重大意义。本文基于马克思再生产理论和宏观经济增长模型,从生产、分配、流通、消费四个环节的相互关系中系统剖析消费的功能,探究消费对经济增长的提振效应。结合马克思两部类经济增长模型和包含结构变量的潜在产出模型测算中国1979年以来的消费潜力,并预测未来至2035年的消费潜力,探究未来消费潜力支撑经济增长的内在数量关系。研究表明,中国消费潜力的趋势总体平稳,既不会出现强劲的反弹,也不会出现明显的失速,中国消费提振面临的主要是结构性问题叠加周期性问题;中国经济增长的痛点是消费潜力未得到充分释放,严重制约了消费对经济增长的拉动效应。据此,本文提出了提升消费潜力的相应路径。
Exerting the driving effect of consumption on the economy is of great significance for unblocking the domestic circulation.Based on Marx's theory of reproduction and macroeconomic growth model,this paper analyzes the functions of consumption and its effects on boosting economic growth in the correlations among production,distribution,circulation and consumption.This paper also measures China's consumption potential since 1979 by combining Marx's two-part economic growth model and the potential output model with structural variables,and forecasts the future consumption potential until 2035 to explore the intrinsic relationship between consumption potential and economic growth.The study shows that the trend of China's consumption potential is generally stable,with neither a strong rebound nor a significant stall;the main problem facing China's economic growth is a mainly structural,and to some extent cyclical;the impediment to China's economic growth is that the consumption potential has not been fully released.This paper accordingly proposes several countermeasures.
作者
陈姝兴
丁任重
Chen Shucing;Ding Renzhong(School of Economics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《政治经济学评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期71-101,共31页
China Review of Political Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“成渝双城集聚—辐射效应分解与优化研究”(批准号:20XJY005)
中央高校基本科研年度培育项目“中国城市群核心—外围城市要素互动效应分析”(批准号:JBK2304022)研究成果。
关键词
消费潜力
经济增长
社会再生产
GDP增速预测
consumption potential
economic growth
social reproduction
GDP growth forecast
