摘要
有效利用碳交易机制,促进我国林业增汇,从而以较低的社会经济成本实现我国碳减排控制目标,是政府和学术界广泛关注的重大问题。本文基于碳排放权供需均衡理论,以区域碳减排成本最小化为目标,构建了纳入林业碳汇抵消履约机制的区域间碳交易模型;测度了2019—2030年我国不同省份林业增汇潜力,探究了要实现2030年碳减排目标,将林业碳汇纳入碳交易框架对我国区域碳减排成本的影响。研究发现,(1)我国林业增汇潜力巨大,2019—2030年我国林业碳汇增量累计达49.28亿吨,年均达4.1亿吨。(2)将林业碳汇纳入碳交易,对促进我国区域碳减排成本降低有显著促进作用。与未将林业碳汇纳入碳交易相比,当其以5%的比例纳入时,在国家自主贡献碳减排控制情景下,我国碳减排成本节约了7.3%,节约效应显著。而当林业碳汇抵消比例逐步提高时,成本节约程度将继续增加,但增速出现下降。最后,本文提出了促进我国林业增汇、碳减排成本降低以及碳交易机制完善的政策建议。
It is a major issue widely concerned by the government and academia to effectively use the carbon trading mechanism to promote China's forestry carbon sink increase,so as to achieve China's carbon emission reduction control goal at a low socio-economic cost.Based on the theory of balance between supply and demand of carbon emission rights,this paper constructs an inter-regional carbon trading model that is included in the forestry carbon sink offset performance mechanism with the goal of minimizing the cost of regional carbon emission reduction.And then,this paper measures the potential of forestry carbon sink in different provinces in China,and explores the impact of bringing forestry carbon sink into inter-regional carbon trading on the carbon emission reduction costs in the whole country,in order to achieve the 2030 carbon emission reduction target.This study shows that:(1)China's forestry has great potential for carbon sequestration.From 2019 to 2030,China's forestry has accumulated 4.928 billion tons of carbon,with an average annual carbon sink of 410 million tons.(2)The incorporation of forestry carbon sink as offset mechanism into inter-regional carbon trading has a significant effect on reducing the cost of carbon emission reduction in China.Compared with not including forestry carbon sequestration in carbon trading,when forestry carbon sequestration is included in carbon trading at a proportion of 5%,China's carbon emission reduction costs will be saved by 7.3%respectively under the development scenarios of China's national independent contribution.The above results show that the cost saving effect of carbon emission reduction is significant.When the forestry carbon sink offset proportion gradually increases,the carbon emission reduction cost savings will increase,but the growth rate decreases.Finally,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the increase of forestry carbon sequestration,reduce the cost of carbon emission reduction and improve the carbon trading mechanism.
作者
曹先磊
许骞骞
吴伟光
CAO Xianlei;XU Qianqian;WU Weiguang
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第12期96-110,共15页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“碳中和目标下碳汇林经营不确定性对林农参与行为的影响机理及激励机制研究”(编号:21YJC790003)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“林业生命周期固碳能力、增长机理与政策选择研究”(编号:72273133)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“碳交易背景下林业碳汇项目风险测度、影响机理与管理对策研究”(编号:71873126)
山西省科技战略研究专项项目“‘双碳’背景下山西省林业碳汇产品价值实现机制、制约因素与支持政策研究”(编号:202104031402076)
山西省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究项目“山西省农产品融入京津冀市场一体化程度、影响因素及其推进机制研究”(编号:2019W088)。
关键词
林业碳汇
碳减排成本
碳交易
“双碳”目标
Forestry carbon sequestration
Carbon emission reduction costs
Carbon trading
"Double carbon"target
