摘要
探究干旱区典型绿洲城市景观生态安全时空演变,设置经济、生态、景观生态安全、可持续(MOP)4种情景,预测土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)趋势,评价2030年景观生态安全,以期缓解城市建设开发与生态环境保护的矛盾。基于1990-2020年的土地利用数据,采用遥感、地理信息系统(GIS)网格等方法构建景观生态安全评价模型,以揭示库车市近30 a景观生态安全空间分布特征与变化趋势,并通过耦合MOP-PLUS模型预测库车市2030年景观生态安全时空演变规律。结果表明:1990-2020年,研究区耕地、林地、建设用地面积总体呈增加趋势,草地、水域面积总体呈现减少趋势,地类转换主要集中于耕地、草地与未利用地;景观生态安全值(ESI)空间集聚状态明显,但集聚程度有所下降,景观生态安全等级以中等、较高、高生态安全为主,占研究区总面积60.15%~64.87%;相较于2020年,2030年4种情景下的ESI变化幅度较大,主要集中于南部人口聚集地。
Aiming to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of urban landscape ecological security in typical oasis city in arid areas,four scenarios including economy,ecology,landscape ecological security and sustainability(MOP)were used to predict land use/cover change(LUCC)trend,and to evaluate landscape ecological security in 2030,which could help ease the tension between urban construction and development and ecological environment protection.Based on the land use data from 1990 to 2020,methods such as remote sensing and geographic information system grid were used to construct the landscape ecological security evaluation model in order to demonstrate the landscape ecological security spatial distribution characteristics and change trends in Kucha City over the past 30 years,and to predict spatial and temporal evolution patterns of landscape ecological security in Kucha City in 2030 through coupled MOP-PLUS model.The results showed that from 1990 to 2020,the areas of cultivated land,woodland and construction land in the research areas showed an overall increasing trend,while the areas of grassland and water showed an overall decreasing trend,and land type conversion mainly focused on cultivated land,grassland and unused land.The spatial clustering status of landscape ecological security value(ESI)was obvious,but the degree of clustering decreased,and the landscape ecological security level was dominated by medium,higher and high ESI,which accounted for 60.15%-64.87%of the total area of the study area.Compared to 2020,the changes in ESI under the four scenarios in 2030 were relatively large,mainly concentrated in the southern population gathering areas.
作者
路甜甜
郭玉川
姚磊
王会静
白运保
张子惠
LU Tiantian;GUO Yuchuan;YAO Lei;WANG Huijing;BAI Yunbao;ZHANG Zihui(College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Universiy,Urumqi 830046,China)
出处
《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2024年第1期47-60,共14页
Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41961003)。
关键词
土地利用格局变化
景观生态安全评价
PLUS多情景模拟
库车市
land use pattern change
landscape ecological security evaluation
PLUS multi-scenario simulation
Kucha City
