摘要
溃坝洪水会给下游人民群众造成巨大的生命损失,开展溃坝洪水造成的生命损失风险定量评估对应急抢险救灾具有重要的现实意义。本文在已有生命损失贝叶斯网络HURAM1.0模型基础上,引入了人体稳定性物理模型,考虑人体与水流相互作用关系,对处于洪水中的人先进行稳定性判定,并进行溺水判定,运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,综合了水深和水流速对生命损失的影响,建立HURAM2.0模型;并将该模型应用于唐家山堰塞坝溃坝洪水生命损失分析。结果表明:HURAM2.0模型建立了水流流速对生命损失影响的定量关系,更精确地刻画了人体在水流中的稳定性和求生能力,相比HURAM1.0模型对较强洪水强度条件下的生命损失预测结果更准确。同时,在本文建立的模型中,除水深度、洪水严重程度变化不大,其余变量的敏感性均有所上升,其中居民区住宅层数、在建筑物中庇护情况和溃坝时长等变量对模型计算结果的最大影响程度分别增加142%、95%和93%,加强了模型在低、中、高3类洪水强度下的解释性,与HURAM1.0相比在贝叶斯反演分析中更占优势。在唐家山堰塞坝溃坝风险分析中,HURAM2.0能区分出不同水流速条件下的生命损失,更符合实际情况,即开挖泄流槽前风险大、死亡率高,在现场勘测和开挖泄流槽后风险及死亡人数大大降低,建议结合预警疏散以降低生命损失风险。
Dam-breach floods pose a significant threat to human life downstream.Conducting a quantitative risk assessment of life loss caused by dam-breach has important practical implications for emergency response and disaster relief efforts.This study presents the HURAM2.0 model,an extension of the existing HURAM1.0 model of life loss Bayesian network,which considers the interaction between the human body and water flow.It first assesses the stability of individuals in floodwaters and then determines the risk of drowning.By employing Monte Carlo simulation,the model integrates the effects of water depth and flow velocity on life loss.The HURAM2.0 model is applied to analyze the life loss caused by the breach of the Tangjiashan landslide dam.The main conclusions are as follows:The HURAM2.0 model established a quantitative relationship between flow velocity and loss of life,thereby providing a more accurate description of the stability and survival capabilities of the human body in water flow.In comparison to the HURAM1.0 model,the HURAM2.0 model demonstrated greater accuracy in predicting the loss of life under conditions of strong flood intensity.Additionally,within the HURAM2.0 model,apart from water depth and flood severity which remain relatively consistent,the sensitivity of the other variables increases.Specifically,the number of floors in residential buildings,shelter provided by buildings,and duration of the breach variables were found to exhibit a respective increase in their impact on model calculations by 142%,95%,and 93%.This enhancement strengthens the model's interpretability under low,medium,and high flood intensity,providing a favorable position for Bayesian inversion.In the risk analysis of the Tangjiashan landslide dam,the HURAM2.0 model differentiates the loss of life under different flow velocity conditions,which aligns more closely with reality.The risk and mortality rate were high before the spillway was excavated.The risk was significantly reduced and the number of deaths greatly decreased after on-site surveys and spillway excavation.It is recommended to use early warning systems and evacuation measures to mitigate the risk of life loss.
作者
彭铭
马福军
沈丹祎
蔡一坚
石振明
周家文
刘西军
PENG Ming;MA Fujun;SHEN Danyi;CAI Yijian;SHI Zhenming;ZHOU Jiawen;LIU Xijun(College of Civil Eng.,Tongji Univ.,Shanghai 200092,China;Key Lab.of Geotechnical and Underground Eng.of Ministry of Education,Tongji Univ.,Shanghai 200092,China;Inst.of Geotechnical Eng.,College of Civil Eng.and Architecture,Zhejiang Univ.,Hangzhou 310058,China;Huadong Eng.Corp.Ltd.,Hangzhou 310000,China;Key Lab.of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng.,Sichuan Univ.,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《工程科学与技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期127-137,共11页
Advanced Engineering Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42071010,42061160480)
水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放基金(SKHL2011)。
关键词
溃坝
人体稳定性
生命损失风险
贝叶斯网络
堰塞坝溃决洪水
dam breach
physical modeling of human stability
risk of loss of life
Bayesian network
landslide dam breach floods
