摘要
1889至1907年间,张之洞主政湖北。在其主导下,湖北工商业获得迅速发展。本文通过时间序列分析等方法,重点考察这一时期湖北以米价为代表的粮价波动情况。研究结果表明,张之洞督鄂时期湖北米价波动具有总体趋势上升、季节变化显著、存在异常振荡和区域差异明显四个主要特征,波动原因涉及湖北的稻米耕作制度、供需关系、自然灾害和区域市场发展水平差异等多个方面。张之洞督鄂时期,湖北经济建设虽取得一定成就,但该时期湖北农业发展迟滞,百姓生活成本上升,民生状况并未得到明显改善,这在一定程度上对湖北工业发展产生不利影响。
From 1889 to 1907,Zhang Zhidong governed Hubei province.Under the leadership of Zhang Zhidong,Hubei’s industry and commerce developed rapidly.Through the method of time series analysis,this paper focuses on the fluctuation of grain price represented by rice price in Hubei during this period.The results show that the fluctuation of rice price in Hubei during Zhang Zhidong Governed Hubeihad four main characteristics:general trend rising,significant seasonal variation,abnormal oscillation and obvious regional difference.The reasons for the fluctuation involve many aspects,such as rice farming system,supply and demand relationship,natural disasters and regional market development level differences in Hubei.During the period of Zhang Zhidong governed Hubei,Hubei’s economic construction had made some achievements,but agricultural development was lagging behind,people’s living costs rose,and people’s livelihood did not improve significantly,which to a certain extent had a negative impact on Hubei’s industrial development.
作者
牛浩
袁为鹏
NIU Hao;YUAN Weipeng(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;School of Humanities,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《湖北师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2024年第1期22-28,88,共8页
Journal of Hubei Normal University（Philosophy and Social Science）
关键词
米价
波动特征
湖北
张之洞督鄂时期
rice price
fluctuation characteristics
Hubei Province
the period of Zhang Zhidong governed Hubei
