摘要
探讨个体心理效应下的突发公共事件谣言传播及其管控策略,具有较大的理论与现实意义.基于经典传染病D-K模型,定义非线性谣言传播力度函数,构建了一种考虑个体心理效应的谣言传播动力学模型.通过分析模型的全域稳定性,给出谣言传播的阈值,最后进行数值模拟与案例分析.结果显示,谣言的传播依据阈值特征呈现出不同局势,阈值小于1时谣言逐渐消失,否则失控;对信息的心理需求、心理饱和系数参数影响谣言传播力度,进而改变谣言未知者、传播者和免疫者的数量.该研究揭示了谣言传播模型对个体心理效应的参数变化极为敏感,对谣言的有效管控有重要指导作用.
It is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the rumor spreading of public emergencies and its control strategies considering the individual psychological effects.Based on the classical epidemic model of D-K,a nonlinear function of the spreading strength of rumor is defined,and then,a dynamic model of rumor spreading considering the individual psychological effects is constructed.By analyzing the global stability of the model,the threshold of rumor spreading is given.Finally,the validity of the model is verified by numerical simulation and case analysis.The results show that the spread of rumor presents different situations according to the characteristics of the threshold.When the threshold is less than 1,the rumor gradually disappears,otherwise it will last.The spreading strength of rumor is affected by the two parameters of the individual psychological effects,namely,the psychological demand for information and the psychological saturation coefficient,which then changes the number of unknown,spreading and immune population of rumor.The research reveals that the rumor spreading model is extremely sensitive to the change of the parameters of the individual psychological effects,and plays an important role in guiding the effective control of rumor.
作者
王浩
宗宪亮
郑辉
毛文娟
WANG Hao;ZONG Xianliang;ZHENG Hui;MAO Wenjuan(School of Economics and Management,Tianjin University of Science and Technology,Tianjin 300222)
出处
《系统科学与数学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期3299-3311,共13页
Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金国家应急管理体系建设专项(20VYJ060)
河北省社会科学基金青年项目(HB19XW003)
天津市教委科研计划项目(2022SK049)资助课题.
关键词
突发公共事件
个体心理效应
谣言传播
动力学模型
Public emergencies
individual psychological effects
rumor spreading
dynamic model
