摘要
系统分析中国潜在自主可控关键产品突破时序路径,是逆全球化背景下全面防范和化解“卡脖子”潜在风险的关键。基于1995—2021年243个国家(地区)出口产品数据构建产品空间网络模型,识别全球核心产品及中国潜在自主可控关键产品,基于产品能力和网络核心性构建优先度指数,挖掘潜在自主可控关键产品突破路径。研究表明,在2021年核心度前10%的124种全球核心产品中,共有54种中国潜在自主可控关键产品,其突破路径为:充分利用机械与电力设备、基本金属制品、化工产品等领域已有的产品能力基础,优先突破光学显影和金属工艺等领域的基础关键产品,再进一步突破机械与电力设备、光学与医疗等精密仪器、塑料与橡胶制品业等领域高端关键产品。
In recent years,due to inadequate independent innovation capability in core technologies in some important fields,such as integrated circuits,precision optics,medical instruments and high-precision CNC machine tools,China has been confronted with technology bottlenecks.Many Chinese enterprises have been muscled out of the global supply chain and the overseas market,and some key products have the potential risk of being maliciously sanctioned.Hence,against the backdrop of anti-globalization,it is urgent to systematically sort out China's potential independent and controllable key product system,and find a scientific breakthrough path for China's potential independent and controllable key products based on China's existing product capabilities to make breakthroughs in the national development.Through a literature review,it is found that most of the existing studies have two deficiencies.Firstly,only the key complex products that have been successfully broken through are studied,while the potential independent and controllable key products that have not been listed in the US Export Control Regulations but may face the risk of being cut off from the supply chain lack attention and systematic identification.Secondly,the existing research mainly focuses on the analysis of successful cases,and most of them are ex-post explanatory studies,and thus lack the complex adaptability to the breakthroughs of independent and controllable key products with the characteristic of multi-industry and multi-technology fusion.The breakthroughs of key products not only depend on existing product capabilities,but also often rely on the priority breakthrough of their indirectly related cross-industry core products or components,and thus there should be a cross-industry independent and controllable key product breakthrough link.This paper selects 243 countries'export product data from 1995 to 2021 and constructs a global product space network with products as nodes,and the size of the nodes represents the global trade volume of the products;the relationship between nodes is the proximity of the comprehensive capabilities required for exporting two products.The model is used to identify global core products and China's potential independent and controllable key products.The priority index is constructed based on product capability and network core to analyze the breakthrough path of potential independent and controllable key products.Research shows that among the 1242 global core products in 2021,there are 54 potential independent and controllable key products in China,and they are mainly distributed in 9 fields,including machinery and electrical equipment,basic metal products,optical and medical precision instruments,chemical products and plastic and rubber products.Among them,the products in urgent need of technology breakthroughs are mainly high-end core products in the field of mechanical and electrical equipment and basic metal products,as well as basic core products in the fields of plastic and rubber products and chemical products.By further analyzing the characteristics of China's potential independent and controllable key products,it is found that China's dominant comparative advantage gap with the United States,Germany and Japan is small overall in terms of low-grade core products in the fields of chemical products,plastic and rubber products,and a few low-grade core products in the fields of basic metal products,machinery and electrical equipment.This shows that China already has the corresponding capacity foundation for primary products in the four fields of machinery and electrical equipment,basic metal products,chemical products,plastic and rubber products.Therefore,after fully considering the urgency of the overall product development strategy and the internal relevance of cross industry products,it is verified that the breakthrough path of China's potential independent and controllable key products is to make full use of the existing primary product capability foundation in the fields of mechanical and electrical equipment,basic metal products,chemical products,plastic and rubber products,and give priority to the breakthrough of basic key products in the fields of optical development and metal technology;if the product capability foundation and product core degree in these fields can be significantly improved,further breakthroughs will be made in high-end key products in these field,such as machinery and electrical equipment,optical and medical precision instruments,plastic and rubber products.
作者
王文平
吴来凤
Wang Wenping;Wu Laifeng(School of Economics and Management,Southeast University;National Development and Policy Research Institute,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China)
出处
《科技进步与对策》
北大核心
2024年第2期13-24,共12页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973023,42277493)
江苏省社会科学基金重点项目(19GLA003)。
关键词
潜在自主可控关键产品
关键核心产品
产品空间网络
优先度指数
Potential Independent and Controllable Key Products
Key Products in Core Fields
Product Space Network
Priority Index
