摘要
构建科学合理的人口高质量发展指标体系,对促进中国式现代化建设具有重要意义。文章结合中国式现代化的内涵和特征,从人口再生产、人口素质、人口结构3个维度构建人口高质量发展的综合评价指标体系。基于因子分析法和熵值法的评价结果,运用模糊Borda法对中国内地31个省份2012~2021年间的人口高质量发展水平进行综合评价。研究结果表明:人口高质量发展水平存在较明显的区域差异,呈现“东—中—西”递减的区域分布格局,东部区位优势明显;中西部和东部差距有缩小的趋势,但西部省份排名波动剧烈,东中部省份排名相对稳定;进一步聚类分析显示,北京、上海、广东、浙江、江苏的人口高质量发展水平处于全国领先地位,是人口高质量发展的模范地区,人口高质量发展高水平地区、中等水平地区和一般水平地区分别有4个、10个和12个省份。基于此,提出以下政策启示:人口高质量发展模范地区应积极发挥自身引领示范作用,总结和分享其人口高质量发展的经验,为其他地区提供借鉴和参考;高水平地区应深入挖掘区域特质,关注人口再生产、素质和结构的平衡,积极推进现代化建设;中等水平地区要努力寻找新的发展机遇,提升人口高质量发展动力,避免差距进一步扩大;一般水平地区应借鉴模范地区经验,找到自身优势,并注重与自然环境的和谐共生。
It is of great significance to build a scientific and reasonable indicator system for high-quality population development to promote the construction of Chinese path to modernization.Combining the connotation and characteris⁃tics of Chinese path to modernization,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of high-quality population development from three dimensions of population reproduction,population quality and population structure.Based on the evaluation results of factor analysis method and entropy method,the fuzzy Borda method is used to compre⁃hensively evaluate the high-quality population development level of 31 provinces in Chinese Mainland from 2012 to 2021.The results indicate that there are significant regional differences in the level of high-quality population develop⁃ment,showing a decreasing regional distribution pattern of“East Central West”,and the eastern region has obvious geo⁃graphical advantages.There is a trend of narrowing the gap between the central and western regions and the eastern re⁃gions,but the ranking of western provinces fluctuates sharply,while the ranking of eastern and central provinces is rela⁃tively stable.Further clustering analysis shows that Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Zhejiang,and Jiangsu have a lead⁃ing position in the country in terms of high-quality population development,making them model areas for high-quality population development.There are 4,10,and 12 provinces in high-level,medium,and general population development areas,respectively.Based on this,the following policy implications are proposed.Model areas for high-quality popula⁃tion development should actively play their leading and demonstrative role,summarize and share their experiences in high-quality population development,and provide reference and guidance for other regions.High level areas should deeply explore regional characteristics,pay attention to population reproduction,balance of quality and structure,and actively promote modernization construction;Middle level regions should strive to seek new development opportunities,enhance the driving force of high-quality population development,and avoid further expansion of shortcomings.Gener⁃al level regions should learn from the experience of model regions,find their own advantages,and pay attention to har⁃monious coexistence with the natural environment.
作者
张冲
梁晓林
王学义
ZHANG Chong;LIANG Xiao-lin;WANG Xue-yi(School of Marxism,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu Sichuan,611731,China;School of Law and Sociology,Xihua University,Chengdu Sichuan,610039,China;Institute of Social Development,Southwest University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu Sichuan,611130,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第1期16-25,共10页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“中国人口转变新格局与人口治理创新研究”(21ARK001)。
关键词
人口高质量发展
中国式现代化
因子分析法
熵值法
模糊Broda法
High-quality Population Development
Chinese Path to Modernization
Factor Analysis Method
Entro⁃py Method
Fuzzy Broda Method
