摘要
港口是能源消耗和二氧化碳排放大户,低碳港口发展是我国建设世界一流绿色港口的最基本要求。以宁波舟山港为研究对象,在定性分析港口低碳建设现状的基础上,采集2010—2022年的港口综合能耗等相关数据,对港口的年碳排放量进行转换计算,并以单位货物吞吐量碳排放量为指标,构建ARMA模型对宁波舟山港未来3 a的碳排放水平进行预测。结果显示,未来短期内宁波舟山港的单位货物吞吐量碳排放量整体呈下降趋势。分析预测结果,对宁波舟山港低碳发展提出合理性建议。
Port was a major consumer of energy and carbon emission,and the development of low-carbon port is the most basic requirement for the construction of world-class green port in China.Based on the qualitative analysis of the current situation of low-carbon construction in Ningbo-Zhoushan Port,this paper collected relevant data such as comprehensive energy consumption from 2010 to 2022,converts and calculates the annual carbon emissions of the port,and predicts the carbon emission level of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in the next three years by constructing an ARMA model based on the carbon emissions per unit of cargo throughput.The results showed that the carbon emissions per unit cargo throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port will show an overall downward trend in the short term in the future.Analyze the prediction results and put forward reasonable suggestions for the low-carbon development of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port.
作者
陈金晶
黎椿荣
祝贵兵
CHEN Jinjing;LI Chunrong;ZHU Guibing(Schoolof Naval Architecture and Maritime of Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan 316022,China)
出处
《浙江海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2023年第6期562-567,共6页
Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University：Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(52261160383)
浙江省自然科学基金探索项目(LY21E090005)。
关键词
碳排放
宁波舟山港
ARMA模型
预测分析
carbon emission
Ningbo Zhoushan Port
ARMA model
predictive analytics
