摘要
基于多元逐步回归方法建立了地面太阳辐射量的预测模型。首先,利用中国气象科学数据共享服务网站数据库中1993年—2013年的数据,分析了太阳辐射量与日照时长的相关关系。其次,采用多元逐步回归分析方法,得到了北京太阳总辐射量多元回归模型,并且建立了从总辐射量中提取散射辐射量的单变量回归模型。最后,将模型的计算结果与实际数据进行对比,验证了所提出模型的有效性和精确性,为光伏电站的规划设计、建模仿真和功率预测等研究提供参考。
In this paper,the prediction model of surface solar radiation is established based on the multiple stepwise regression method.First,with the data from 1993 to 2013 in the database of the China Meteorological Science Data Sharing Service,the correlation between the amount of solar radiation and the duration of sunshine is analyzed.And then,with multiple stepwise regression analysis,the multiple regression models used to forecast the solar radiation exposure are obtained.Furthermore,a univariate regression model is established to extract the scattered radiation from the total radiation.Finally,the calculation results of the model are compared with the actual data to validate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model,which can provide reference for the research of planning and design,modeling and simulation and power prediction of photovoltaic(PV)power stations.
作者
闫旭斌
YAN Xubin(Taiyuan Power Supply Company of State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030001,China)
出处
《山西电力》
2024年第1期46-50,共5页
Shanxi Electric Power
关键词
光伏电站
太阳辐射
散射提取
气象因素
多元回归
photovoltaic power station
solar radiation
scattering extraction
meteorological factor
multiple regression
