摘要
农业系统既是重要的碳源系统,也是重要的碳汇系统。广西作为中国农业重点区域,量化其农业系统碳账户(碳排放、碳固定和净碳汇)对广西实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要作用。本研究基于广西统计数据,综合考虑农业系统碳排放和碳固定来源,采用排放因子法和碳固定因子法对农业碳排放和碳固定进行量化,结合STIRPAT模型对碳账户影响因素进行分析。本研究结果显示,1978—2021年广西农业碳排放量和碳固定量分别增长24.90%和280.30%,净碳汇量由–293.79×10^(4)t上升到1862.14×10^(4)t。农业资料投入是碳排放的主要来源,其中化肥和灌溉是农业资料投入中最主要的碳排放来源。作物碳固定是广西农业系统碳固定量的主要来源,甘蔗是最主要的碳固定作物,占作物碳固定总量的57.35%。农业碳排放、碳固定和净碳汇量与农业机械化水平、农业经济发展水平、农业资料投入、农作物产量和稻田播种面积显著相关。STIRPAT模型结果表明,化肥投入与水稻种植对碳排放增加的影响最大,水稻播种面积、农作物产量和化肥投入显著影响碳固定和净碳汇量。为增加农业系统净碳汇量,广西后续应加强对化肥精准施用、稻田甲烷排放控制、规范化养殖和甘蔗增产方面的研究。
Guangxi is a major agricultural region in China,and the agricultural system is not only an important source of carbon emissions that cause global climate change,but also a significant pathway for carbon sequestration.To achieve the“dual carbon”targets in agriculture and high-quality development of the rural economy in Guangxi,this study comprehensively estimates the amount of agricultural carbon budget in Guangxi from 1978 to 2021.It also identified the key factors influencing agricultural carbon budget.Agricultural carbon budget,including carbon emissions,carbon sequestration,and net carbon sinks,was estimated and analyzed using total agricultural material inputs,paddy cultivated area,livestock and poultry farming,amount of crop residue burned,crop yield,and aquaculture production from Guangxi statistical database using the emission factors approach and the carbon sequestration parameter method.Based on this,the main factors influencing agricultural carbon budgets were identified using the revised Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology(STIRPAT)model.The results revealed that the value of carbon emissions,carbon sequestration and net carbon sink increased from 1166.61×10^(4) t,872.81×10^(4) t and–293.79×10^(4) t to 1457.17×10^(4) t,3271.57×10^(4) t and 1862.14×10^(4) t,with an average annual increase of 0.55%,3.45%and 18.92%,respectively,from 1978 to 2021.In 1990,carbon emissions and sequestration reached a balance,then the net carbon sink from agricultural system showed a trend of first increasing and then stabilizing.From 1979 to 2021,carbon emissions from agricultural materials input showed an increasing trend,and it contributed to 36.44%of total carbon emissions.Carbon emissions from paddy field,livestock and poultry farming,and crop reside burning were 26.41%,21.93%and 15.22%in 2021,respectively.Specifically,fertilizer application,medium rice cultivation,cattle breeding,and rice straw burning were the major contributors to carbon emissions.Carbon sequestration by crops has been the dominant source of carbon sequestration over the past several decades.Of these,sugarcane has increased and become the major source of carbon sequestration(57.35%in 2021),while rice carbon sequestration has declined from 75.57%in 1978 to 28.62%in 2021.Aquaculture accounts for about 10%of total carbon sequestration,with oysters accounting for 99%of aquaculture’s carbon sequestration.The STIRPAT model demonstrated that the agricultural carbon budget in Guangxi was affected by many factors.Carbon emissions were correlated with rice production and fertilizer application,and every 1%increase in the two factors led to 0.417%and 0.035%increases in carbon emissions,respectively.Carbon sequestration and net carbon sink were driven by the total agricultural population,level of agricultural economic development,fertilizer application,and crop yield.The total agricultural population and rice sown area had negative impacts on carbon sequestration and net carbon sink,while crop yield was the most influential factor.An increase of 1%in crop yield led to increase of 0.17%−0.39%in carbon sequestration.The results of this study showed that carbon emissions can be reduced and carbon sequestration can be increased through precision fertilization,intensive farming,and increased crop yields.The present results provide scientific data for policy formulation and agricultural carbon emission predictions.
作者
葛小君
吴丹
李淑斌
安强
GE Xiaojun;WU Dan;LI Shubin;AN Qiang(Guangxi Research Institute of Metrology&Test,Nanning 530001,China;Vrije Universiteit Brussel,Brussel 1050,Belgium)
出处
《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期218-229,共12页
Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture
基金
广西科技基地和人才专项(桂科AD21238034)资助。
关键词
广西
农业碳排放
农业碳固定
农业净碳汇
STIRPAT模型
Guangxi
Agricultural carbon emissions
Agricultural carbon sequestration
Agricultural net carbon sink
STIRPAT model
