摘要
2008年以来,全球货币利率普遍下调,至今难以回调,其中影响因素之一是人口老龄化。研究发现:(1)人口老龄化促使自然利率出现趋势性下行,牵引政策利率向下适应性调整。(2)在低利率环境中,“零利率下限”约束挤压中央银行利率的操作空间,导致货币政策难以发挥作用。(3)货币政策框架中设置有目标的宏观审慎政策可以发挥压舱石作用,缓解“零利率下限”约束对货币政策的影响,且“信贷产出比”更适合作为金融稳定的衡量指标。这对于深入认识人口老龄化对中国长期经济增长的影响、探索完善应对老龄化时代的宏观审慎政策选择具有重要的启示。
By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating heterogeneity in population structure,this paper investigates the impact of population aging on China’s natural interest rates,and explores the measures and paths for improving the monetary policy framework in the“zero-interest-rate bound”.Findings reveal:firstly the aging population has led to a downward trend in natural interest rates,leading to a downward adaptive adjustment of policy interest rates;secondly,in a low interest rate environment,the“zerointerest-rate floor”constraint squeezes the operating space of central bank interest rates,making it difficult for monetary policy to function;finally,targeted macro prudential policies within the monetary policy framework can serve as a ballast,alleviating the impact of the“zero-interest-rate bound”constraint on monetary policy,and the“credit output ratio”is more suitable as a measure of financial stability.This paper provides important insights into the impact of population aging on China’s long-term economic growth and explores the improvement of the monetary policy framework system to address the aging era.
作者
朱军
李建强
ZHU Jun;LI Jian-qiang(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing,210023;Financial Research Institute,The People’s Bank of China,Beijing,100800)
出处
《云南社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第1期85-94,共10页
Social Sciences in Yunnan
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“现代财政—金融结合框架下的地方政府债务管理研究”(项目号:21&ZD094)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“基于中国实践的协调发展理论研究”(项目号:22JJD790060)的阶段性成果。
关键词
人口老龄化
自然利率
零利率下限
宏观审慎政策
Population Aging
Natural Interest Rate
Zero Lower Bound
Macro-prudential Policy
