摘要
目的:以天津市近10年相关数据为基础建立灰色模型,对天津市未来5年的卫生人才发展进行预测研究,以期为未来的卫生人力资源配置优化提供科学佐证。方法:汇总2011-2022年卫生人力资源相关数据,描述性分析近10年天津市卫生人力资源的变化趋势。运用Matlab软件对2023-2027年卫生人力资源配置情况进行GM(1,1)模型预测分析。结果:2011-2022年卫生人力资源整体数量呈现上升趋势,其中注册护士和技师的年增长率相对较高,分别为5.85%和6.11%。构建的灰色预测模型拟合结果都较好,预测结果到2027年卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师、注册护士、药师和技师分别达到161 019人、72324人、63 655人、9116人和10 839人。结论:未来天津市护理人员缺口较大,应加强院校合作以及医疗机构加大重视护理人员的培养与考核。为避免单一模型的局限性应将经济社会等多重因素纳入至预测模型中,还可以考虑多个预测模型构建组合模型。
Objective:Based on the relevant data of Tianjin in the past 10 years,a grey model was established to predict the develop-ment of health talents in Tianjin in the next five years,in order to provide scientific evidence for the optimization of health human re-sources allocation in the future.Methods:Summarize the relevant data of health human resources from 2011 to 2022,analyze the change trend of health human resources in Tianjin in the past 10 years.Use Matlab software to conduct GM(1,1)model to predict and analyze the of health human resource allocation from 2023 to 2027.Results:From 2011 to 2022,the overall number of health human resources showed an upward trend,and the annual growth rates of registered nurses and technicians were relatively fastest.They are 5.85%and 6.11%respectively.The gray prediction model constructed has good fitting results.The prediction results are that by 2027,the number of health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians,registered nurses,pharmacists and technicians will reach 161,019,72,324,63,655,9,116 and 10,839 respectively.Conclusion:In the future,there is a large shortage of nursing staff in Tianjin,so the cooperation between colleges and universities should be strengthened and medical institutions should pay more attention to the training and assessment of nursing staff.In order to avoid the limitations of a single model,multiple factors such as economy and society should be included in the prediction model,and multiple prediction models should also be considered to construct a combined model.
作者
吴锋
褚玉晶
蔡晗
WU Feng;CHU Yujing;Cai Han(President’s Office,Tianjin Chest Hospital,Tianjin 300222;Human Resource Department,Tianjin Chest Hospital,Tianjin 300222)
出处
《江苏卫生事业管理》
2024年第1期10-14,共5页
Jiangsu Health System Management
基金
天津市科技发展战略研究资助项目(19ZLZXZF00340)
天津市医院协会医院管理研究项目(2020ZC20)
天津市卫生健康科技项目(TJWJ2023QN065)。
关键词
卫生人力资源
灰色模型预测
天津
Health Human Resources
Grey Forecasting Model
Tianjin
