摘要
为减少天然气管道投产前的设计和制造缺陷,提高使用寿命、运行可靠性和安全性、减少后期维修费用,通过统计模型结合试验数据实现对天然气管道可靠性增长水平的预测,提出天然气管道可靠性增长预测方法;分析常用可靠性增长模型并结合天然气管道可维修、小子样的特点,将Duane模型与AMSAA模型应用于天然气管道,结合点估计、趋势检验、拟合优度检验、区间估计和标准差,得出天然气管道可靠性增长模型,预测可靠性增长并进行实例验证。研究结果表明:Duane模型与AMSAA模型作为天然气管道可靠性增长试验具有可行性;其中AMSAA模型更具优势,得出天然气管道的瞬时无故障工作时间(MTBF)估计值可达到试验目标值,并预测MTBF达到2000 h时所需要的试验时间为317954611.3 h,未来第51次故障预测区间为[848.4609,939.6226],误差为1.25%,方法具有良好的适用性,可有效预测天然气管道可靠性增长。研究结果可为天然气管道设计改进提供指导。
In order to reduce the design and manufacturing defects of natural gas pipelines before commissioning,improve the service life,operational reliability and safety,and reduce the later maintenance cost,a prediction method for the reliability growth of natural gas pipelines was proposed by combining the statistical model with test data to achieve the prediction on the reliability growth level of natural gas pipelines.By analyzing the commonly used reliability growth models and combining the characteristics of repairable and small sub-samples of natural gas pipelines,the Duane model and the AMSAA model were applied to natural gas pipelines.Combining the point estimation,trend test,goodness-of-fit test,interval estimation and standard deviation,the reliability growth model of natural gas pipelines was obtained,and the reliability growth was predicted and verified by actual example.The results show that using the Duane model and the AMSAA model in the reliability growth test of natural gas pipeline is feasible.Among them,the AMSAA model is more advantageous,and the estimated instantaneous mean time between failure(MTBF)of natural gas pipeline can reach the test target value.The test time required for predicting the MTBF to reach 2000 h is 317954611.3 h,and the future 51st failure prediction interval is[848.4609,939.6226]with an error accuracy of 1.25%.The method has good applicability and can effectively predict the reliability growth of natural gas pipelines.The research results can provide guidance for the design improvement of natural gas pipeline.
作者
张鹏
宋文琦
肖博文
刘为
赵明
ZHANG Peng;SONG Wenqi;XIAO Bowen;LIU Wei;ZHAO Ming(School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;Petroleum Engineering School,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China)
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期114-120,共7页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50974105)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20105121110003)
中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2011-ZD-20)。
