摘要
了解森林火灾的时空分布格局,定量分析其统计学规律,能够为该地区的火源管理与森林火灾科学预防提供基础支撑。根据广西1990—2020年的森林火灾数据、气象数据和基础地理数据,分析广西大尺度下的森林火灾时空分布趋势,同时构建零膨胀负二项回归模型,探讨气象因素对森林火灾的影响。结果表明,在年际变化上,广西林火数量呈“M”形波动,2005年以后森林火灾波动较大,季节上多发于冬季和春季,每年10月至次年4月累计发生13 249起,占比80%;森林火灾的发生具有明显的地域聚集性,主要发生在海拔0~400 m和斜坡为25°以下的平原低山地区;气象因子对森林火灾的发生具有重要影响,其中降雨量和平均风速对广西森林火灾的影响最为显著。未来广西应加大防火期,尤其是重要节假日前后的野外火源管控力度与应急处置能力,同时完善火险天气预警,以应对极端天气带来的森林火灾隐患。
Understanding the temporal and spatial distribution pattern of forest fire and quantitatively analyzing its statistical law can provide basic support for fire source management and scientific prevention of forest fire in this area.Based on the forest fire data,meteorological data and basic geographical data of Guangxi from 1990 to 2020,the temporal and spatial distribution of forest fire in Guangxi was analyzed.A zero inflation negative binomial regression model was constructed to discuss the influence of meteorological factors on forest fire.The results showed that the number of forest fires in Guangxi fluctuated in"M"shaped in interannual variation,and the annual forest fire fluctuated greatly after 2005.Seasonally,forest fires were most prevalent during the winter and spring,with a cumulative total of 13249 occurrences between October and next April,accounting for 80%of the total.The occurrence of forest fire had obvious regional aggregation,which mainly occurred in the plain and low mountain areas below the elevation of 400 meters and the slope(25°).Meteorological factors had an important influence on the occurrence of forest fire,among them,rainfall and average wind speed had the most significant impact on forest fire in Guangxi.In the future,Guangxi should strengthen the field fire source control and emergency disposal capacity during the fire prevention period,especially before and after important holidays,and improve the fire danger weather warning in order to deal with the hidden danger of forest fire caused by extreme weather.
作者
巨文珍
韩斐扬
彭泊林
李常诚
何珊
潘婷
JU Wenzhen;HAN Feiyang;PENG Bolin;LI Changcheng;HE Shan;PAN Ting(Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Forestry Survey and Design Institute,Nanning 530011,China)
出处
《森林工程》
北大核心
2024年第2期77-84,共8页
Forest Engineering
基金
广西自筹经费林业科技项目(2023GXZCLK69)
广西林业设计院自选科技项目(林勘科研[2022]-01-03)。
关键词
森林火灾
时间序列
空间分布特征
负二项回归
广西壮族自治区
Forest fire
time series
spatial distribution characteristics
zero inflation negative binomial regression
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
