摘要
为科学评估湖库型水源地风险评价等级,以茂名市电白区罗坑水库水源地为例,从水要素、管理要素、社会经济要素3方面构建了湖库型水源地风险评价指标体系,并确定各指标的评价标准,基于突变理论和模糊数学构建了风险评价模型。结果表明:水源地风险等级与水源地建设投入关系密切。自2018年罗坑水库水源地划为饮用水水源地以来,随着水源地建设投入的加大和保护力度的增强,水源地风险逐渐降低。2018-2022年,罗坑水库水源地风险评价等级依次为较高风险、较高风险、中风险、较低风险、较低风险;尽管现在罗坑水库风险较低,但后续罗坑水库仍需加大投入力度,提高水源地管理、监控和应急水平、进一步降低风险等级。
To scientifically evaluate the risk assessment level of lake reservoir type water source areas and take the Luokeng Reservoir water source area in Dianbai District,Maoming City as an example,based on the systematic literature review method,this paper constructs a risk assessment index system for lake reservoir type water source areas from three aspects:water element,management element,and socio-economic element,covering nine levels:water quality,water quantity,aquatic ecology,management and protection level,emergency level,agriculture,industry,economy,and life,with a total of 27 three-level indicators.And it analyzes and determines the risk threshold of the response index,uses fuzzy mathematics to calculate the fuzzy membership function value of the risk evaluation index,and uses the normalization formula of the mutation evaluation method to calculate the total membership function value of the first level evaluation index and the risk evaluation system step by step.The results indicate that the risk level of water sources is closely related to the investment in water source construction.Since the water source area of Luokeng Reservoir is designated as a drinking water source area in 2018,with the increase in investment in water source construction and the enhancement of protection efforts,the risk of water source areas has gradually decreased.From 2018 to 2022,the overall risk assessment level of the water source area of Luokeng Reservoir was ranked as higher risk,higher risk,medium risk,lower risk,and lower risk;The risk assessment levels of water elements are in order of high risk,low risk,low risk,low risk,and low risk.The level transformation of water elements is closely related to the improvement of the annual water supply guarantee rate,annual precipitation,and vegetation coverage rate of the third level indicators.The risk assessment levels of management elements are sequentially high risk,high risk,high risk,low risk,and medium risk.The risk assessment level transformation of management elements is synchronized with the construction investment of Luokeng Reservoir.The risk assessment levels of socio-economic factors are in order of lower risk,medium risk,medium risk,lower risk,and lower risk.The changes in risk levels of socio-economic factors are closely related to industrial wastewater discharge and economic growth rate.This result is consistent with the objective situation of Luokeng Reservoir and is highly reliable.Although the risk of Luokeng Reservoir is relatively low now,it still needs to increase investment in the future.The management department of the water source area of Luokeng Reservoir should actively cooperate with various relevant departments to accelerate the standardized construction of the protected area,increase the comprehensive renovation of the protected area,improve the monitoring level,management personnel level,and emergency level of the water source area,comprehensively ensure the safety of the water source area,and further reduce the risk level of the water source area.
作者
唐红亮
谢宇宁
王冬
张金萍
董延军
TANG Hong-liang;XIE Yu-ning;WANG Dong;ZHANG Jin-ping;DONG Yan-jun(South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510000,Guangdong Province,China;The Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute,Guangzhou 510000,Guangdong Province,China;Technology Research Center for Life and Health of River and Lake,Guangzhou 510000,Guangdong Province,China;School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450000,Henan Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2024年第2期178-185,共8页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
科技基础资源调查专项“西江流域资源环境与生物多样性综合科学考察”(2019FY101900)
国家重点研发计划项目“珠江流域关键生源要素多介质溯源与协同管控”(2022YFC3202200)
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200205)。
关键词
湖库型水源地
突变理论
模糊数学
风险评价
指标体系
lake reservoir type water source area
catastrophe theory
fuzzy mathematics
risk assessment
indicator system
