摘要
对核心技术网络及其成长机制的研究有助于梳理核心技术之间的依赖和促进关系,为研究核心技术演化提供新的理论视角和方法。以技术演化相关理论为基础,归纳核心技术网络成长的影响因素,基于量子计算领域专利数据,识别以技术概念和技术关系为基础的量子计算领域核心技术网络,并基于Valued ERGMs模型构建核心技术网络成长机制模型。结果表明,技术要素中心性、专利技术研发能力、与TRIZ进化法则匹配程度以及技术要素同配性对核心技术网络成长具有正向促进作用;在技术路径方面,核心技术网络成长受到技术要素路径依赖性和技术突破的双重影响。最后,根据量子计算领域核心技术网络成长机制的实证研究结果,从技术研发层面、企业层面、政府层面为相关领域技术发展提出策略建议。
Core technologies are critical for sustaining the competitive advantage of firms,industries and countries.In any technological field,the core technologies are critical for the super complex technology networks,and their development deserves in-depth investigation.The research on the core technology network(CTN)and its growth mechanism can help understand the dependence and synergy between core technologies,and provide theoretical and methodological support for strategic planning and development.However,the expert-based methods in the current literature are subjective,and cannot quantitatively model the growth mechanism of core technologies;most statistical network models(e.g.,ERGMs)use various proxies of technology,such as firms or institutions,technological classes(e.g.,IPCs)and patents,instead of technological concepts(TCs);most studies model the formation mechanism of technology networks instead of their growth mechanism.This paper addresses these issues with valued exponential random graph models(valued ERGMs)that describe the growth mechanism of TC-based CTNs,because valued ERGMs can test hypotheses on the edge weights in networks,and TCs can explicitly show the technical contents of the core technologies.First,following theories of technological evolution,this study builds a conceptual framework of the growth of CTNs,including the external,internal,and interactive factors of technological concepts(TCs).The external factors of TCs include their network centrality and total technology capacity.The internal factors insist of TRIZ evolution principles and path dependency.The interactive factor is manifested in the assortativity of TCs.Five hypotheses on the growth mechanism of CTN are proposed.Second,all TCs are extracted from a collection of technical texts in a specific technological domain,a domain technology network is constructed with the TCs and their relationships,and a CTN is identified with valued core of the domain technology network.Last,the network effects(variables)from valued ERGMs and the five hypotheses are measured,and a set of growth mechanism models of the CTN is built,with a null model,a main effect model,and a comprehensive(main and interactive effects)model being built for both ERGMs and valued ERGMs.For ERGMs or valued ERGMs,the null models only test the distribution of number of edges or edge weights;the main effect models add the tests for the effects of node attributes on their relationship(formation or weights)with other nodes;the comprehensive model adds extra tests for the interactive effects between two node attributes on their relationship.The above analytical framework is applied to the field of quantum computing.In the CTN construction stage,the Derwent Innovations Index(DII)is used as the data source.To identify appropriate patents in quantum computing,the Derwent Manual Code(DMC)“MAN=T01-E05Q”is searched and the time period was up to January 2,2021.A total of 2303 patents are obtained.The abstracts of these patents are cleaned,and the TCs in all the patent abstracts are extracted in the form of subject-action-objects(SAOs).The common subjects and objects are merged into nodes,and edge weights are counted,resulting in the technology network in quantum computing domain.The valued core(with a threshold of 5)is identified as the CTN of quantum computing.In the statistical modeling stage,all the ERGMs and valued ERGMs for the CTN are built and tested.It is evident that the valued ERGMs have the smallest AIC and BIC,as well as the highest consistency in the coefficients.The results show that the centrality of technical elements,the R&D capability of patented technologies,the degree of matching with the TRIZ evolution principles and the compatibility of technical elements have positive effects on the growth of the relationship between TCs in CTN.Meanwhile,the growth of its CTN is affected by both the path dependence of technological elements and technological breakthroughs.Finally,the suggestions on the development strategy of quantum computing are proposed from R&D,firm and government perspectives.The contribution of this study is threefold.First,this study is one of the first to apply valued ERGMs as effective tools for analyzing the growth mechanism of technology networks.Second,the core technology network is constructed with technological concepts,and it describes the core technologies explicitly.Last,the effects of two TRIZ evolution principles are empirically verified,which is a novel addition to the theory of technological evolution.
作者
任海英
李真
Ren Haiying;Li Zhen(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology;Research Base of Beijing Modern Manufacturing Development,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《科技进步与对策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第4期1-11,共11页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
北京市自然科学基金面上项目(9192003)。
