摘要
宏观经济政策效果评估是健全宏观经济治理体系的重要一环。然而,预期管理作为中央银行引导预期的重要宏观调控手段,其效果评估面临着缺少关键指标等问题,仍有较大的完善空间。本文基于宏观经济研究报告文本,采用词典法从立场和情绪两个维度构造市场的货币政策预期,并在此基础上评估预期管理的效果。实证研究表明,中央银行预期管理能够对市场货币政策立场和情绪产生显著的正向影响,其中对市场货币政策立场的影响具有显著的持续性,验证了我国预期管理的有效性。进一步分析表明,预期管理效果在不同的经济政策不确定性、货币政策倾向、货币政策预期和宏观分析师预测误差等情况下均存在显著的异质性,在市场信息需求较高的情况下预期管理能发挥更大的作用。本文研究为预期管理政策效果评估和相关学术研究提供了重要的基础性指标,研究结果对于提高央行沟通有效性和完善央行预期管理政策框架具有重要启示。
Evaluating the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies is a critical aspect of robust macroeconomic governance. Notably, assessing the effectiveness of expectation management, a key regulatory tool used by central banks to influence expectations, presents challenges due to the absence of essential indicators, leaving substantial scope for enhancement. This study, drawing on macroeconomic analysis report texts, develops market indicators for monetary policy stance and sentiment using the dictionary method. It then employs these indicators to test the effectiveness of expectation management. The empirical analysis reveals that central bank expectation management significantly and positively influences market monetary policy stance and sentiment. Notably, the impact on the monetary policy stance demonstrates considerable persistence, affirming the effectiveness of expectation management in China. Further investigation indicates notable variability in expectation management effects across different factors: economic policy uncertainty, monetary policy preferences,expectations, and errors in macro analyst forecasts. The study observes that expectation management is more influential under conditions of heightened market information needs. This research provides essential indicators for the timely, ongoing evaluation of expectation management effectiveness and contributes valuable insights to academic discourse. Additionally, the findings offer meaningful implications for enhancing central bank communication strategies and refining expectation management policies.
作者
郭豫媚
王航
郭俊杰
GUO Yumei;WANG Hang;GUO Junjie(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《金融评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期47-71,123,共26页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目《中国货币政策预期管理效果的定量评估:模型仿真与指标体系构建》(项目批准号:72273159)
国家自然科学基金青年项目《中国财政政策空间对财政政策有效性的影响:实证分析与模型仿真》(项目批准号:72103216)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划的资助。
关键词
预期管理
市场预期
政策评价
央行沟通
Expectations Management
Market Expectations
Policy Evaluation
Central Bank Communication
