摘要
以山东省某港区货运量预测为例,通过对比分析,采用回归分析和时间序列预测相组合的方法,确定影响货运量的因素指标,构建组合预测模型,运用SPSS软件进行数据分析,对港区所在城市的货运量进行预测,以定量化数值反应区域未来货运量,为科学制定港区总体规模和货物运力供给及布局提供参考依据。
Taking the freight volume prediction of a port area in Shandong as an example,through comparative analysis,combined regression analysis and time series prediction,the factors influencing the freight volume are determined,a combined prediction model is constructed,and the data is analyzed by SPSS software to predict the freight volume of the city where the port area is located,so as to quantitatively reflect the future freight volume of the region and provide reference for scientifically formulating the overall size of the port area and the supply and layout of cargo capacity.
作者
王玮
安静
凌洲
WANG Wei;AN Jing;LING Zhou(Shandong Port Land-Sea International Logistics Group Co.,Ltd.,Shandong Jinan 250013 China)
关键词
货运量预测
组合预测
回归分析
时间序列预测
freight volume forecast
combination forecasting
regression analysis
time series prediction
