摘要
耕地利用转型为应对全球耕地利用碳减排提供了新途径。采用熵值法、空间自相关模型、空间计量模型等模型方法,以黄淮海平原为例,探究“双碳背景”下耕地利用转型对耕地利用碳排放的空间影响效应。结果发现:(1)黄淮海平原耕地利用碳排放量、耕地利用转型及其具体形态均存在显著正向的空间自相关,且耕地利用碳排放呈现“东高西低”“北高南低”的空间格局;(2)显性转型加剧了本县域和邻近县域的碳排放,而隐性转型则对本地和邻近地区均具有碳减排效应;(3)数量转型、空间结构转型以及生产功能转型对耕地利用碳排放具有正向的直接效应和空间溢出效应;生活功能转型和生态功能转型则均具有碳减排效应。研究表明,应稳妥推进耕地适度规模化经营,合理调整耕地空间分布格局,发展现代化低碳农业;因地制宜引导耕地利用转型;利用比较优势,充分发挥耕地利用隐性转型的区域耕地碳减排效应,助力实现“双碳目标”。
Farmland use transition(FUT)provides a novel approach to address global farmland use carbon emissions(FUCE).This paper employs various modeling techniques,including the entropy method,spatial autocorrelation models,and spatial econometric models,using Huang-Huai-Hai Plain as a case study.It investigates the spatial impact of FUT on FUCE under the double carbon background of China.The results reveal the following:(1)In Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation among FUCE,FUT,and their specific forms.FUCE exhibit a spatial pattern characterized by"high in the east and low in the west"and"high in the north and low in the south".(2)The dominant farmland use transition(DFUT)can aggravate FUCE in both the local county and neighboring counties,while the recessive farmland use transition(RFUT)lead to carbon reduction effects in both local and nearby regions.Quantitative farmland use transition(QFUT),spatial structure farmland use transition(SSFUT),and production function farmland use transition(PFFUT)all have positive direct effects on farmland use carbon emissions,as well as discernible spatial spillover effects.Conversely,both living function farmland use transition(LFFUT)and ecological function farmland use transition(EFFUT)contribute to carbon emissions reduction.This study suggests that a prudent approach should be taken to promote moderately scaled farmland operations,adjust the spatial distribution of farmland,and develop modern,low-carbon agriculture.Tailoring farmland use transitions to local conditions is crucial,harnessing regional comparative advantages and fully realizing the carbon reduction potential of RFUT,thereby contributing to the achievement of dual carbon goals.
作者
王梦成
董又铭
林娜娜
漆信贤
黄贤金
WANG Meng-cheng;DONG You-ming;LIN Na-na;QI Xin-xian;HUANG Xian-jin(School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutral and Territorial Spatial Optimization,Ministry of Natural Resources,Nanjing 210023,China)
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期352-371,共20页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42201301)
中国国土勘测规划院外协项目(20231411037)
江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项资金项目(BK20220037)
南京市规划和自然资源局高淳分局采购项目(NJCC2022083)。
关键词
双碳目标
耕地利用转型
耕地利用碳排放
空间计量模型
空间溢出效应
黄淮海平原
double carbon goals
farmland use transition(FUT)
farmland use carbon emissions(FUCE)
spatial econometric model
spatial spillover effect
Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
