冲突背景下国际政经关系多元数据联合分析

Multi-data Joint Analysis of International Political and Economic Relations in the Context of Conflict

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摘要 [研究目的]探究冲突背景下不同类型的第三方国同冲突方国的政经关系态势,识别行为异常国家,为国家外交政策制定提供情报支持。[研究方法]引入介入行为细分第三方国同冲突方国的政治关系类型,基于角色理论、冲突介入理论构建第三方国政经关系分析理论框架,基于多元数据对政经关系标注量化,采用单因素方差模型计算第三方国政经行为的相关性,基于指数平滑预测以及箱线图检测经济行为异常的国家。[研究结论]以“俄乌冲突”实证结果来看,第三方国同冲突方俄罗斯的政经关系呈现显著正相关,但亦有部分国家同俄罗斯政冷经热,印度、英国等国家经济行为表现相对异常。本研究探究冲突背景下第三方国同冲突方国的政经相关关系,能够为国际关系量化研究提供新的研究路径。 [Research purpose]Inquiry different types of third-party countries in the context of conflict,political and economic relations with conflicts,identify abnormal countries,and provide intelligence support for national foreign policy formulation.[Research method]The study introduces the intervention behavior to subdivide the types of political relations with the third party states and the parties of the conflict.It constructs a theoretical framework for the third-party state political and economic relationship analysis based on the theory of character theory and conflict intervention,marks and quantifies the political and economic relations based on multiple data,calculates the correlation of third-party states'political and economic behaviors via One-Way Analysis of Variance Model,and detects coutries with abnormal economic behaviors based on the exponential smooth prediction and box line diagram.[Research conclusion]Judging from the empirical results of the"Russian and Ukraine Conflict",the political and economic relations of third-party countries with Russia,the conflict party,are significantly positive,while some countries are having a relationship with Russia which is featured as political cold and economic heat.The economic behaviors of India,the United Kingdom and other countries are relatively abnormal.This study explored the political and economic correlation between the third party countries and the conflict party countries,it can provide new research paths for quantitative research on international relations.

作者李纲杨玖洲毛进 Li Gang;Yang Jiuzhou;Mao Jin(Center for Studies of Information Resources,School of Information Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072)

机构地区武汉大学信息资源研究中心武汉大学信息管理学院

出处《情报杂志》北大核心 2024年第2期53-62,共10页 Journal of Intelligence

基金国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目“信息资源管理”(编号:71921002) 国家自然科学基金重大项目“国家安全大数据综合信息集成与分析方法”(编号:71790612)研究成果。

关键词国际冲突政经关系第三方国多元数据量化计算指数平滑冲突介入理论角色理论 international conflict political and economic relations third-party country multivariate data quantitative calculation exponential smoothing conflict intervention theory role theory

分类号 G350 [文化科学—情报学]