摘要
【目的】假苍耳是一种恶性入侵杂草,预测其在新疆地区的潜在适生区并进行风险评估,旨在为其科学防控提供参考。【方法】采用MaxEnt模型与Arc GIS 10.4软件进行分析,预测假苍耳在新疆的潜在分布区,并划分风险等级。运用多指标综合评估方法,对假苍耳的危害风险性进行综合分析评估。【结果】假苍耳在新疆的适生区主要在北疆地区,适生区范围较广。高适生区主要包括克拉玛依市、昌吉回族自治州北部及塔城地区中部。年平均温(bio1)、最干季平均温(bio9)、最冷季平均温(bio11)及最热季平均温(bio10)是影响假苍耳分布的主要环境因子。假苍耳的危险性综合评价值为2.238,属于高度危险的有害生物。【结论】假苍耳目前在新疆仅分布在塔城地区,预测结果表明其在北疆地区继续扩散的趋势较大,需要提前制定好相应的管理和控制措施。
【Aim】Cyclachaena xanthiifolia(Nuttall)Fresenius is an invasive weed species.The aim of predicting its potential habitat and conducting a risk assessment in Xinjiang is to provide a scientific reference for effective prevention and control in our region.【Method】The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.4 software were utilized to analyze and predict the potential distribution area of C.xanthiifolia in Xinjiang.Additionally,the classification of risk levels was performed.Furthermore,the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method was employed to comprehensively analyze and assess the hazard risk of C.xanthiifolia.【Result】The suitable area for C.xanthiifolia in Xinjiang is predominantly situated in the northern region,covering a wide expanse.Highly adaptable areas include Karamay City,the northern part of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,and the central part of Tacheng District.Key environmental factors influencing the distribution of C.xanthiifolia encompass the annual average temperature(bio1),the average temperature in the driest season(bio9),the average temperature in the coldest season(bio11),and the average temperature in the hottest season(bio10).The comprehensive risk assessment value of C.xanthiifolia is 2.238,indicating its classification as a highly dangerous pest.【Conclusion】Though C.xanthiifolia is confined to Tacheng,Xinjiang,prediction results suggest a potential expansion of its coverage in northern Xinjiang.Therefore,proactive management and control measures should be devised accordingly.
作者
冯佳楠
依米提·热苏力
史博
张兴
方艳
马德英
FENG Jianan;YIMITI·Resuli;SHI Bo;ZHANG Xing;FANG Yan;MA Deying(College of Agronomy,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species in Agriculture&Forestry of the North-western Desert Oasis(Co-construction by Ministry and Province),Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Safety Prevention and Control of Agriculture and Forest Pests,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;Urumqi Customs District P.R.CHINA,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830011,China;Tacheng Customs District P.R.CHINA,Tacheng,Xinjiang 834700,China)
出处
《生物安全学报（中英文）》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期54-59,共6页
Journal of biosafety
基金
重要跨境农业入侵生物精准识别与智能化快速检测(2017YFC1200602)
乌鲁木齐海关合作项目。
关键词
假苍耳
MaxEnt模型
适生性分析
风险评估
新疆
Cyclachaena xanthiifolia
MaxEnt model
adaptability analysis
risk assessment
Xinjiang
