摘要
为有效防控危化品槽罐车火灾事故,准确判别槽罐车火灾类型,运用Python统计我国2013—2020年危化品槽罐车道路火灾案例;在确定火灾事故特征的基础上,将3种危化品槽罐车火灾类型(喷射火灾、池火灾与沸腾液体膨胀蒸气爆炸火灾(BLEVE))作为被解释变量类别,确定空间与道路特征、时间与气象特征、人员因素、车辆及设备因素以及危化品因素5个方面共15项火灾因子;构建基于多项Logistic危化品槽罐车火灾类型判别模型;开展准确性检验和显著性检验以及实例应用,获得3种火灾类型的发生概率,并提出相应的火灾防治措施。结果表明:实例中液化天然气(LNG)罐车最有可能发生池火灾,其概率为0.55;其次为喷射火灾,BLEVE火灾的概率最小。采取提高危化品容器机械强度、减小碰撞强度等措施,可避免容器出现较大尺寸的泄漏孔,减少池火灾发生概率;采取减缓泄漏速度、控制泄漏范围、迅速合理灭火等应急措施可以减少LNG池火灾危害后果。
In order to effectively prevent and control fire accidents of hazardous chemical tanks during transportation,it is necessary to identify the type of tank fire quickly and correctly.The statistical data of domestic hazardous chemicals tanker fire accidents from 2013 to 2020 was analyzed with Python software.According to the characteristics of fire accidents,a regression model with multiple logistic regression theory was established.The three common fire types of hazardous chemicals tankers,namely,jet fire,pool fire and BLEVE(Boiled Liquid Evaporate Vapor Explosion)fire,were regarded as the categories of explained variables.Through the analysis of accident data,a total of 15 fire factors in five aspects,namely,space and road characteristics,time and meteorological characteristics,personnel factors,vehicle and equipment factors,and hazardous chemicals factors,were determined.A multiple logistic regression equation of fire probability of hazardous chemicals tankers was constructed,and the explicitness and accuracy of the equation were tested.The determined model was proved by examples.The probability of three types of fire in hazardous chemicals tankers was obtained.The accident prevention measures were proposed.The results show that it is the most likely a pool fire for a liquefied natural gas tanker,with a probability of 0.55.The second one is jet fire,and the last one is the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion fire.To reduce the probability of pool fires,measures such as improving the mechanical strength of the container and reducing the collision strength could be adopted to prevent leakage holes of large size in the container.Measures such as slowing down the leakage rate,controlling the leakage range and efficient scientific fire extinguishing are adopted to decrease sequences of tank fire.
作者
刘勇
李肖
施式亮
鲁义
王正武
施星宇
LIU Yong;LI Xiao;SHI Shiliang;LU Yi;WANG Zhengwu;SHI Xingyu(School of Resources Environment and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan Hunan 411201,China;Institute of Public Security and Emergency Management,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan Hunan 411201,China;School of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha Hunan 410114,China;School of Electrical&Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha Hunan 410114,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期231-237,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(52074118)
湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(21A0306)
湖南省交通科技项目(201920)。
关键词
多项Logistic
危化品
槽罐车
火灾类型判别
道路运输
multiple Logistic regression
hazardous chemicals
tanker
fire type discrimination
highway transportation
