摘要
通过分析2003—2022年的人口数据,深入了解海南省的人口现状,并预测常住人口总量。数据源于《海南省统计年鉴》,采用折线图、人口金字塔图等对海南省2003—2022年人口现状进行描述,并应用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型对未来三年的常住人口数进行预测。经过分析和预测,结果显示,贝叶斯结构时间序列模型的均方根误差为2.914、平均绝对百分比误差为0.002<10、决定系数为0.986。2023—2025年海南省常住人口总数分别为1042.34万人、1054.56万人、1066.76万人。说明贝叶斯结构时间序列模型应用于海南省常住人口预测的效果较好,海南省常住人口数量仍会持续缓慢上升。
This paper gains insight into the current demographic situation of Hainan Province and predicts the total resident population by analyzing the population data from 2003 to 2022.The data is from Statistical Yearbook of Hainan Province,and this paper uses line chart and population pyramid map to describe the current demographic situation of Hainan Province from 2003 to 2022,and a Bayesian Structural Time Series model is applied to predict the total resident population for the next three years.After analysis and prediction,the results show that the Bayesian Structural Time Series model has a root mean square error of 2.914,a mean absolute percentage error of 0.002 which is less than 10,and a coefficient of determination of 0.986.The total resident population of Hainan Province from 2023 to 2025 is 10423400,10545600,and 10667600,respectively.It shows that the Bayesian Structural Time Series model is effective in predicting the resident population of Hainan Province,and the number of resident population in Hainan Province will continue to rise slowly.
作者
郝文琪
曹莉
HAO Wenqi;CAO Li(International School of Public Health and One Health,Hainan Medical University,Haikou 571199,China)
出处
《现代信息科技》
2024年第2期124-127,共4页
Modern Information Technology
基金
海南省高等学校教育教学改革研究项目(Hnjg2022-61)
海南医学院教育科研重点项目(HYZD202113)
海南省大学生创新课题(S202111810001)。
关键词
海南省
常住人口数
预测
贝叶斯结构时间序列模型
Hainan Province
annual permanent population
prediction
Bayesian Structure Time Series model
