摘要
全球新冠疫情与逆全球化等大变局冲击下,我国产业技术链面临巨大风险。识别产业技术链风险,需要基于科学的评价方法对其进行全面评估。基于技术差距和资源依赖理论,构建“技术水平差距、技术价值和可替代性”三维度的风险测度模型。选择芯片领域3大环节、共15个主要技术为样本,443285条发明专利数据,测度中国内地、日本、韩国、美国、欧洲等五国(地区)芯片产业技术链的结构、运行情况、面临的风险及多阶段演化特征。研究发现,日本和美国的芯片产业技术链的风险指数最小,中国内地面临的风险最大;美国在IC设计环节、日本在IC制造环节的风险指数长期处于最低位置,韩国和欧洲在各环节均面临一定风险,中国内地在各环节面临的风险均呈下降趋势,但仍较大。研究丰富了产业技术链风险的理论内涵及测度维度,基于发明专利数据的全量化测度方法,为全面开展产业技术链风险评价提供了新的方法论。研究结果对国际技术形势研判、产业链风险预测和排查、提高产业技术链韧性等具有启示意义。
The current COVID-19 is spreading around the world,and the rise of anti globalization trend has brought about major changes in the international situation,which has caused a huge impact on the safety of China's industrial technology chain and seriously threatened the safety of China's industrial technology chain.There is an urgent need to identify the risks facing our industrial technology chain and to assess them comprehensively based on scientific evaluation methods.Based on the technology gap theory and resource dependence theory,this paper constructs a risk measurement model of industrial technology chain with three theoretical dimensions of"technology level gap,technology value and substitutability".In this paper,a total of 15 main technical monomers in the three technological links in the chip field are selected as samples,and 443285 invention patent data are collected.This data is used to measure the structure,operation,risks and multi-stage evolution characteristics of the chip industry technology chain in five countries(regions),including China's mainland,Japan,South Korea,the United States and Europe.The study found that the risk index faced by the chip industry technology chain in Japan and the United States is the smallest,while the risk index faced by the industry technology chain in the mainland of China is the largest;From the evolution of the risk index of various countries(regions)in multiple stages,the risk index of the United States in the IC design link has been at the lowest position for a long time,and the security risk faced by Japan in the IC manufacturing link has also been at the lowest position for a long time.South Korea and Europe are facing certain security risks in all links of the chip industry technology chain,and the risk faced by the mainland of China in all links of the chip industry technology chain is also large,but from the perspective of the changes in multiple stages,The risk index faced by the technology chain of the chip industry in the mainland of China shows a downward trend.Based on the technology gap theory and resource dependence theory,this study constructs three dimensions to measure the risk index of industrial technology chain,which enriches the theoretical connotation and measurement dimension of industrial technology chain risk.The full quantitative measurement method based on the invention patent data in the study provides a new methodology for comprehensively carrying out the risk assessment of industrial technology chain.The research results have implications for the study and judgment of the international technological situation,the prediction and troubleshooting of industrial chain risks,and the improvement of the toughness of industrial technology chain.
作者
项丽瑶
赵一智
俞荣建
XIANG Li-yao;ZHAO Yi-zhi;YU Rong-jian(School of Business Administration,Zhejiang Financial and Economy University,Hangzhou 310018,China;School of Business Administration,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Global Value Chain Research Center,Hangzhou 310018,China)
出处
《科学学研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期278-288,共11页
Studies in Science of Science
基金
浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地(2022JDKTYB15)
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(20&ZD124)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973129)。
关键词
芯片技术
产业技术链
产业技术链风险
专利计量
chip technology
industrial technology chain
industrial technology chain risk
patent measurement
