摘要
【目的】讨论北太平洋维多利亚模态(Victoria mode,VM)在1900—2021年(122 a)内时空分布变化,研究内部变率和全球变暖对春季VM在122 a年际变率增强的相对贡献。【方法】利用英国Hadley海表温度资料和第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)模式资料,采用多元线性回归方法分析内部变率和全球变暖对春季VM在122 a年际变率增强的相对贡献。【结果与结论】1)VM模态的解释方差从1900—1960年的9.3%增长到1961—2021年的13.1%,东北-西南方向的偶极子型结构变得更明显,且强VM事件年发生频率得到明显提高。2)定量分析得到全球变暖对1900—2014年春季VM的年际变率增强的相对贡献占46.67%,内部变率对1900—2014年春季VM的年际变率增强的相对贡献占34.38%。
【Objective】To explore the temporal and spatial distribution changes of Victoria mode(VM)in the North Pacific in 1900-2021(122 years),and the relative contributions of internal variability and global warming to the enhancement of interannual variability of spring VM in 122 years.【Method】Based on the data of Hadley sea surface temperature in Britain and the model data of the Sixth International Coupled Model Comparison Program(CMIP6),the relative contribution of internal variability and global warming to the increase of spring VM variability in 122 years was analyzed by multiple linear regression method.【Result and Conclusion】1)The explanatory variance of VM mode increased from 9.3%in 1900-1960 to 13.1%in 1961-2021,and the dipole structure in the northeast southwest direction became more obvious,and the annual frequency of strong VM events was significantly increased.2)Quantitative analysis showed that the relative contributions of global warming and internal variability to the increase of interannual variability of VM in the spring of 1900-2014 were 46.67%and 34.38%respectively.
作者
刘宇豪
丁瑞强
李扬
LIU Yuhao;DING Ruiqiang;LI Yang(Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of ChineseMinistry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)
出处
《广东海洋大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期84-92,共9页
Journal of Guangdong Ocean University
基金
国家自然科学基金(42225501,42175042)。
