摘要
海冰是海洋-大气交互系统的重要组成部分,是全球气候变化的指示器。深入分析海冰演变规律,探索全球气候变化与海冰范围之间的关联,对应对和减缓全球气候变化具有重要的理论意义。本文以北极海冰为研究对象,深入分析了1979-2022年北极海冰范围的季节、年际和年代际变化特征,并构建向量自回归模型(Vector AutoRegressive Model,VAR)检验全球平均气温、大气CO_(2)浓度与北极海冰范围之间的因果关系,并分析影响程度。结果表明:(1)北极海冰范围季节变化特征明显,一般在3月达到最大,9月达到最小,这主要与太阳辐射的年变化周期相关;(2)1979-2022年,北极海冰范围总体呈减小趋势,年变化量为5.3万km^(2);(3)北极海冰范围在年代际尺度上逐渐减小,2000-2009年,北极海冰范围较上一个十年减小最多(减少67万km^(2));(4)全球平均气温和大气CO_(2)浓度均对北极海冰范围变化造成了显著影响;(5)全球平均气温和大气CO_(2)浓度与北极海冰范围均有显著负相关关系,相关系数分别为-0.92和-0.95。
Sea ice is an important component of the ocean atmosphere interaction system and an indicator of global climate change.In depth analysis of the evolution patterns of sea ice and exploring the correlation between global climate change and sea ice extent are of great theoretical significance for addressing and mitigating global climate change.This paper takes the Arctic sea ice as the research object,deeply analyzes the seasonal,interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics of the Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2022,and constructs a Vector AutoRegression Model(VAR)to test the causal relationship between global average air temperature,atmospheric CO_(2) concentration and Arctic sea ice extent,while also analyzing the degree of influence.The results show that:(a)The Arctic sea ice extent has obvious seasonal variation characteristics,generally reaching its maximum in March and minimum in September,which is mainly related to the annual variation cycle of solar radiation;(b)From 1979 to 2022,the Arctic sea ice extent generally decreases,with an annual variation of 53000 square kilometers;(c)The Arctic sea ice extent gradually decreases on the interdecadal scale,from 2000 to 2009,the Arctic sea ice extent decreased the most than that of the last decade,by 670000 square kilometers;(d)Both global average air temperature and atmospheric CO_(2) concentration have a significant impact on the Arctic sea ice extent changes;(e)Both global average air temperature and atmospheric CO_(2) concentration have a significant negative correlation with the Arctic sea ice extent,with correlation coefficients of-0.92 and-0.95,respectively.
作者
邓丽静
金波文
全梦媛
王爱梅
范文静
王慧
DENG Lijing;JIN Bowen;QUAN Mengyuan;WANG Aimei;FAN Wenjing;WANG Hui(National Marine Data&Information Service,Tianjin 30071,China;National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《海洋信息技术与应用》
2024年第1期8-16,共9页
JOURNAL OF MARINE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATION
