摘要
为加强对重大工程项目所具有的显著的复杂性特点的理解与有效度量,突破性建立重大工程项目复杂性定量评价方法,为项目管理人员精准把控项目复杂性提供有效方法。通过文献综述与专家访谈,从理论上明晰重大工程项目及其复杂性的定义与内涵;基于技术-组织-环境(TOE)理论框架识别重大工程项目复杂性评价要素,通过三轮问卷设计形成调查问卷,对回收的94份问卷进行信度、效度检验与因子分析,构建包含3个维度(技术复杂性、组织复杂性、环境复杂性)与17个二级评价指标的重大工程项目复杂性测度体系;基于网络层次分析(ANP)模型计算得出各指标的权重系数,并提出重大工程项目复杂性计算公式,在此基础上进行案例分析。结果表明:通过三层次复杂性管理策略体系,重大工程项目复杂性定量评估使得评价信息来源明晰、准确与可靠,既实现对项目整体复杂性的宏观把控,又有助于明确复杂性管理方案中的重点控制维度及具体措施。
The construction of megaprojects has significant complexity characteristics,therefore traditional project management theory is no longer fully applicable to the management of megaprojects.It is extremely vital to strengthen the understanding and measurement of the complexity of megaprojects.Based on the TOE framework theory,the complexity evaluation elements of megaprojects were identified,and a complexity measurement system was established through a literature review and expert interviews.Then the reliability,validity,and factor analysis of 94 questionnaires were tested to set up the framework of complexity factors.Moreover,based on the ANP model,the weight coefficients of each index were calculated,and the complexity calculation formula for megaprojects was put forward.On this basis,case analysis was conducted to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the formula.The definition and connotation of megaprojects and their complexity are theoretically clarified as well as a breakthrough quantitative evaluation system for the complexity of megaprojects is established,which realizes objective appraisal of project complexity and provides an efficacious method for project managers to accurately grasp the project complexity.
作者
周之皓
汤育春
王广斌
陆莹
曹冬平
Zhou Zhihao;Tang Yuchun;Wang Guangbin;Lu Ying;Cao Dongping(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;School of Civil Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
2024年第2期140-149,共10页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
中国民用航空局民航安全能力建设项目“大型航空交通枢纽工程综合集成管控关键技术及项目管理指南研究”(10522100000021J003)。
关键词
重大工程
项目复杂性
量表开发
评价体系
案例分析
megaproject
project complexity
scale development
assessment system
case study
