摘要
目的:探讨中国喉癌的发病率和死亡率的趋势及年龄、时期、队列对喉癌发病和死亡风险的影响,预测中国未来20年喉癌的发病率和死亡率。方法:收集1990—2019年中国喉癌发病率和死亡率的数据以及年龄标化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标化死亡率(ASMR)。使用Joinpoint回归模型分析1990—2019年中国喉癌标化发病率和标化死亡率的变化趋势,使用年龄—时期—队列模型分析影响中国喉癌原始发病和死亡风险的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应。使用R软件BAPC包预测中国未来20年喉癌的年龄标化发病率、年龄标化死亡率。结果:1990—2019年中国居民喉癌ASIR整体呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.99,P<0.05),男性ASIR呈上升趋势(AAPC=1.30,P<0.05),女性ASIR呈下降趋势(AAPC=-0.50,P<0.05);中国居民喉癌ASMR整体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-1.11,P<0.05);喉癌发病和死亡风险总体上随年龄的增加而增加;随时期推移,男性和女性喉癌发病风险增大(RR=1.71、1.29),男性喉癌死亡风险增加,出生越晚的人群喉癌发病和死亡风险越低;预测2039年男性发病率为4.83/10万,女性发病率为0.67/10万,男性死亡率为1.29/10万,女性死亡率为29.42/10万。结论:中国居民喉癌ASIR总体呈上升趋势,ASMR呈下降趋势;男性喉癌的ASIR和ASMR高于女性;随年龄增加喉癌的发病与死亡风险随之增加,发病风险和死亡风险随年份增加,越晚出生的人群发病和死亡风险越低;预测未来20年中国居民喉癌ASIR会继续上升、ASMR下降。
Objective:To explore the trend of incidence rate and mortality of laryngeal cancer in China,and to explore the impact of age,period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of laryngeal cancer,and to predict the incidence rate and mortality of laryngeal cancer in China in the next 20 years.Methods:Data on incidence rate and mortality of laryngeal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019,as well as age standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age standardized mortality(ASMR)were collected.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of standardized incidence rate and standardized mortality of laryngeal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019,and age period cohort model was used to analyze the age effect,period effect and cohort effect that affect the original incidence and death risk of laryngeal cancer in China.The R software BAPC package was used to predict the age standardized incidence rate and age standardized mortality of laryngeal cancer in China in the next 20 years.Results:The overall ASIR of Chinese residents with laryngeal cancer is on the rise(AAPC=0.99,P<0.05),with male ASIR showing an upward trend(AAPC=1.30,P<0.05)and female ASIR showing a downward trend(AAPC=-0.50,P<0.05);The overall ASMR of laryngeal cancer among Chinese residents shows a downward trend(AAPC=-1.11,P<0.05);The overall risk of laryngeal cancer incidence and mortality increases with age;Over time,the risk of laryngeal cancer increases in both males and females(RR=1.71,1.29),and the risk of mortality from laryngeal cancer increases in males.People born later have a lower risk of developing and dying from laryngeal cancer;It is predicted that in 2039,the male incidence rate will be 4.83/100000,the female incidence rate will be 0.67/100000,the male mortality rate will be 1.29/100000,and the female mortality rate will be 29.42/100000.Conclusion:The overall ASIR of Chinese residents with laryngeal cancer is on the rise,while the ASMR is on the decline;The ASIR and ASMR of male laryngeal cancer are higher than those of females;The incidence and mortality risk of laryngeal cancer increase with age,and the incidence and mortality risk increase with age.The later the birth,the lower the incidence and mortality risk;It is predicted that the ASIR of laryngeal cancer among Chinese residents will continue to rise and the ASMR will decrease in the next 20 years.
作者
王雨欣
朱文鹏
韩梦琦
王国平
WANG Yuxin;ZHU Wenpeng;HAN Mengqi;WANG Guoping(School of Public Health,Wannan Medical College)
出处
《长治医学院学报》
2024年第1期7-11,共5页
Journal of Changzhi Medical College
基金
安徽高校科学研究项目(SK2019ZD19)。
关键词
喉癌
发病率
死亡率
疾病负担
预测
laryngeal cancer
incidence
mortality
disease burden
forecast
