摘要
研究使用土地利用、夜间灯光和能源统计数据,采用能源碳排放模拟法计算碳排放量和碳吸收系数法计算碳吸收量,构建了黄河流域多尺度、长时间序列碳源/汇估算模型.利用构建的估算模型和探索性空间数据分析法从省、市、县以及栅格尺度对黄河流域碳源/汇以及碳平衡进行时空演变特征分析.结果表明:(1)分组模拟能源消费与夜间灯光数据,发现长时间序列碳排放估算模型拟合相关性均达到0.9以上,模型估算精度良好.(2)从空间分布看,东部地区碳排放呈逐年增加趋势,而碳吸收量较多则主要分布在东北和西南部.从省份看,碳排放量最高省为山东;碳吸收量最高省为内蒙古.从市级看,高碳排放城市呈现总体向东部、北部移动趋势,高碳吸收逐渐向西南地区扩张.从县级看,高碳排放与吸收县域向东北地区扩张.(3)黄河流域20年来碳排放与碳吸收累积变化总体均呈上升趋势,但吸收量增加幅度大于碳排放量,说明黄河流域减排增汇工作取得了积极进展,绿色发展工作持续推进.研究结果可为黄河流域减排增汇,实现绿色发展提供科学参考.
In this study,a multi-scale and long time series carbon source/sink estimation model was constructed based on land use,night light and energy statistics data.Besides,the energy carbon emission simulation method was used to calculate carbon emissions and the carbon absorption coefficient method was employed to calculate carbon absorption.The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon source/sink and carbon balance in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed at the provincial,city,county and grid scales using.The results show that:①The simulation of energy consumption and night light data in groups shows that the long time series carbon emission estimation model fit correlation reaches more than 0.9,and the model estimation accuracy is good.②Seeing from the spatial distribution,carbon emissions in the eastern region show a consistent increase during the study periods,while areas with higher carbon absorption are mainly located in the northeast and southwest.In terms of provinces,the highest carbon emission province is Shandong;the highest carbon absorption province is Inner Mongolia.From the perspective of municipalities,the cities with high carbon emissions generally exhibit an eastward and northward trend,and areas with high carbon absorption gradually expand towards the southwest.Moreover,regions with high levels of both carbon emission and absorption are expanding towards northeastern China.③Over the past 20 years,cumulative changes in carbon emission and carbon absorption in the Yellow River Basin have shown an overall upward trend,but the increase of carbon absorption is larger than that of carbon emission,which indicates that the green development work in the Yellow River Basin has made positive progress in emission reduction and sink enhancement,and the green development work has been continuously promoted.The results of this study can provide scientific references for achieving emission reduction targets and enhancing sinks in the Yellow River Basin and promoting sustainable green development.
作者
王敏彤
魏伟
颉斌斌
郝瑞军
周俊菊
杨世龙
陈帝伯
WANG Mintong;WEI Wei;JIE Binbin;HAO Ruijun;ZHOU Junju;YANG Shilong;CHEN Dibo(School of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070;School of Urban Management,Lanzhou City University,Lanzhou 730070)
出处
《环境科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期477-488,共12页
Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae
基金
国家自然科学基金(No.42261023)
甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目阶段性研究成果(No.批准号2022YB047)
甘肃省自然科学基金(No.23JRRA713)。
关键词
碳源/汇
碳平衡
时空变化
多尺度
黄河流域
carbon source/sink
carbon balance
spatial and temporal change
multi-scale
Yellow River Basin
